March 16, 2008
China Passes the U.S. in Number of Internet Users
According to this InformationWeek story, China now has over 216 million internet users.
Posted by John at 10:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackFebruary 27, 2008
Political Punditry and the "Great and Powerful Oz"
Lee Gomes, writing in the Wall Street Journal, identifies yet another reason why the mainstream media gets red-faced and insecure when the subject of bloggers and online news comes up:
Like most writers online, Rick Klein, who covers politics on the ABC News Web site, invites reader comment. The posts he gets tend toward predictable red vs. blue harangues. But one commenter, "Henry," stood out for his unusually insightful analyses of campaign strategies, exit polls and other election esoterica.
Curious about Henry's identity, Mr. Klein wrote him and asked: Are you a midlevel staffer at some big presidential campaign? Or perhaps a K Street lobbyist, whose livelihood will be affected by November?
Henry turned out to be a high-school teacher in California, whose only connection to the Beltway was a broadband one. . . .
When knowledge gets democratized and distributed ubiquitously, it arouses the wrath of the "great and powerful" punditry:
January 20, 2008
The Internet vs. The Mob
Small business owners in Sicily, weary of long years of forking over protection money to the Mafia, are using the Internet to more effectively band together and find strength in numbers:
. . . The businesses are openly defying the Mafia by signing on to a Web site called "Addiopizzo" (Goodbye Pizzo), which brings together businesses in the Sicilian capital that are resisting extortion.
The campaign was launched in 2004 by a group of youths thinking of opening a pub. They started off by plastering Palermo with anti-pizzo fliers, reading "An ENTIRE PEOPLE WHO PAYS THE PIZZO IS A PEOPLE WITHOUT DIGNITY," and eventually brought their campaign online where it struck a profound chord with Sicilians fed up with Mafia bullying.
Confindustria, the industrialists' lobby, has also boosted the movement with a threat to expel members who pay protection money. Its Sicilian branch has gone through a list of pizzo-paying companies found in a raid on a top Mafia boss' hideout, and this month began summoning heads of those companies to demand to know if they indeed had been paying and should be drummed out of the politically influential lobby. . . .
Read the full account courtesy of Wired; thanks to TP Wire Service for the pointer.
Posted by John at 7:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackJanuary 12, 2008
Googlevision
Matsushita is teaming with Google:
Matsushita and Google have jointly developed equipment to show content from YouTube, an internet video clip website, clearly on large TV screens. The new Viera plasma TVs, which will debut in the spring in the US, will also include access to Picasa Web Albums, a free online photo-sharing service from Google.
Toshihiro Sakamoto, president of Panasonic AVC Networks, said: "This is the first time mainstream consumers will be able to easily enjoy YouTube videos from the living room with the enhanced quality of a fully integrated widescreen TV experience." [Source: Financial Times]
Yoshi Yamada, head of Panasonic's North American operations, went on to tell the Financial Times that his commodity-oriented products need Google's content to differentiate them in the market.
Here's a company barely ten years old giving a seventy-something year old product a new reason to live.
Posted by John at 7:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackDecember 7, 2007
An Internet Business "Tumbles" In
National Public Radio has the story of Linda Katz, a southwest Kansas resident who, in an effort to learn web page design, created a fictitious Internet company website, "Prairie Tumbleweed Farms". The site started generated real life orders, however, and Ms. Katz started a real life business with the tagline, "it they don't tumble, we don't sell them." She sells small tumbleweeds for $15 and large ones cost $25. She's received orders for Hollywood movie sets, and NASA purchased some in order to test the Mars land rover. The business is now 13 years old and generates about $40,000 a year.
Posted by John at 4:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackNovember 23, 2007
As With A Lot of of Things, Technology Races Past Government
Fred Wilson comments on the news that scientists have developed a process to generate patient- and disease-specific stem cells without the use of human eggs or embryos:
Posted by John at 12:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack. . . once again, technology is the solution to a problem that government can't seem to figure out how to solve. I am not particularly optimistic about our government in this country, or frankly in in our world. Politics is subject to corruption, short term thinking over long term planning, and the will of vocal and powerful minorities over the silent majorities.
But technology on the other hand is solving problems right and left. It's creating problems too (like the stem cell debate). But the great thing about technology is it always tries to solve the problems it creates. And has a track record of doing so.
Next up - our reliance on carbon-based energy and the pollution, climate change, and wealth and power effects it creates.
November 17, 2007
Wherefore Art Thou Internet?
According to a Zogby Poll, 31% of singles believe the internet can serve as a replacement for a significant other. [Hat tip: The American]
Posted by John at 6:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackOctober 28, 2007
A Supercomputer You Can Get Your Hand Around
It's only 10 to 15 years in the future, according to nanotechnology researchers. [Source: PC World]
Posted by John at 4:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackOctober 23, 2007
The Google Effect
From 2004 to 2006, roughly $19 billion in wealth was monetized from Google employees exercising options and selling shares. That sum is greater than the GDP of Panama, Iceland, or Bahrain. [Source: Mercury News]
Posted by John at 6:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackOctober 8, 2007
Chicken Little and the Lap of the Gods
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO Richard Fisher, in remarks at the Greater Dallas Chamber Annual State of Technology Luncheon, offers a reminder of how robust--yet unpredictable--the pace of innovation is in the U.S. economy:
. . . We live in a time when it is fashionable to look at all glasses as half full. Chicken Little rules the roost of economic prognostication. The innovators in this room know differently. Heirs to Eli Whitney, Thomas Edison, Alexander Graham Bell and the Wright brothers, American entrepreneurs are accustomed to operating in an economy that is the crucible of innovation. Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce, Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg and, of course, Bill Gates sprang from the American landscape, not from Germany or France or China or India or anyplace else. Inventiveness is part of the American DNA, nurtured in an economic system that encourages innovation and rewards it handsomely. New products and new technologies find fertile soil here in Texas and throughout the United States, where they can be funded and brought to market, only to be challenged in due course by the next round of new products and new technologies.
A free enterprise system recognizes that innovation cannot be predicted or controlled. No part of the computer was invented with the computer in mind. The keyboard came from the typewriter, invented in the 1860s by Christopher Latham Sholes. The first program was written for Joseph Marie Jacquard's loom in 1801, a technology to avoid mistakes made by the weavers. Vacuum tubes and transistors were first associated with radio and then television. The microchip was invented for handheld calculators, not for computers per se. And the electricity that powers it all started out as a better way to light up dark rooms. Mix them all together and—voila—you have a computer, the unintended consequence of a series of separate inventions.
American technology will continue to march forward, as it has for generations. Skeptics have always been proved wrong. Charles Duell once ran the U.S. Patent Office. He would probably be forgotten by now if not for a few words he is purported to have uttered in 1899—after the introduction of telephones, electric lights and automobiles, but before the next wave of innovation that brought us airplanes, refrigeration, radios and my favorite great invention, the pop-up toaster. In 1899, amid the great burst of innovation, one that rivaled what we see today, Duell infamously proclaimed: "Everything that can be invented has been invented." If Duell had been right, the job of econometricians and monetary policymakers would have been made so much easier. They could have put everything on autopilot. And, as a nation, we would have gone into decline, deprived of the fresh energy of new technology. I'll return to my best buddy—Schumpeter. He knew better. He wrote that "we cannot reason about the future possibilities of technological advance, those [technologies] that are still in the lap of the gods may be more or less productive than any that have thus far come within our range of observation. ... There is no reason to expect slackening of the rate of output through exhaustion of technological possibilities."
We know not what marvels still sit in the "lap of the gods." But history tells us it is a fool's game to expect a slackening of the rate of technological accomplishment. Some of you may even play starring roles developing the future waves of technology. Your efforts and the fruits of your labor will fuel the incessant revolution of our economic system, making the work of central bankers more confusing and challenging. As sure as I am standing here, I know that your success will make my job harder. I ask only one thing of you:
Keep it up.
Fisher's complete remarks can be found here.
Posted by John at 5:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackAugust 31, 2007
A Terabyte Here, A Terabyte There
Hard drives with 1 terabyte capacity are now available at $400 or less, according to Web Worker Daily. According to Microsoft Research, a terabyte can hold an audio file of every conversation you will ever have in your life. For further reference, the Library of Congress has collected 70 terabytes of data.
Posted by John at 5:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackJuly 9, 2007
Pilgrimage by Cyberspace
Modefine Ltd. offers a personal Light and Pray Service, conducted by a priest from the Church of the Annunciation in Nazareth, you can order and witness via the Web. The full story is at the MIT Technology Review.
Posted by John at 10:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackJune 13, 2007
A $150 Billion U.S. Company Built With Talent Acquired Worldwide
Google's Vice President for People Operations, Laszlo Bock, recently testified before a Congressional committee on immigration policies and the "fierce, worldwide battle for talent" which Google and other companies find themselves in. Bock, himself a Romanian immigrant, gives specific examples and a stirring explanation of the very practical and direct benefits of immigration. Take a moment and watch this video:
April 13, 2007
The Future is Now for Labor Shortages
. . . After 2010, a huge swath of workers and middle management will begin to disappear from the U.S. workforce. The number of new workers coming onto the job market will fall dramatically below the job creation capacities of U.S. companies.
The great U.S. job machine, which in the last few decades absorbed the unprecedented influx of baby boomers, women and illegal immigrants into the workforce, will face a new phase in its economic evolution. Labor shortages, already a concern at present with unemployment under 5%, will become endemic.
Viewed in this context, the current debates about immigration and outsourcing are most likely well behind the curve. They will soon have to reason with entirely new realities. . . .
So writes L. Ronald Scheman, Director General of the Inter-American Agency for Cooperation and Development, in a commentary posted at The Globalist.
Actually, the future is now. Information Week reports that hourly wages for IT professionals are at their highest level since 2001, and that “there's unprecedented customer demand and not enough people”.
Posted by John at 11:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackApril 3, 2007
Latino Broadband Users Searching for Content
A study from the Yahoo!/Telemundo partnership finds that roughly 80% of Latino households are broadband users, yet two-thirds of the online content they consume is in English, due to a lack of Spanish language options. See more from Marketing y Medios.
Posted by John at 9:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackMarch 8, 2007
An Explosion of Information
—The amount of digital content (emails, mobile phone calls, photos, blogs, TV signals, etc.) generated on earth last year would fill a dozen stacks of hardback books stretching from the earth to the sun. That’s about 161 exabytes, the equivalent of 161 billion iPod shuffles.
—Last year’s email traffic accounted for 6 exabytes. By comparison, all human language since the dawn of time would take up an estimated 5 exabytes if storied digitally.
—The U.S. and Europe account for three-quarters of all digital content, but the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow significantly as online usage rises and electronic devices such as camera phones proliferate.
—Data added to the digital universe is expected to rise more than sixfold, to 988 exabytes, in three years.
—The U.K. is already generating more digital content than can be stored, and the U.S. is expected to hit this point next year.
[Thanks to The End of Cyberspace for the pointer.]
Posted by John at 5:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 17, 2006
Bill Gates: A Man, Not a Machine
As Bill Gates prepares to step away from Microsoft in favor of philanthropy, Jeff Jarvis has a terrific perspective on the man and his company.
Posted by John at 9:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackJune 9, 2006
Research on the Flattening Power of the Internet in Knowledge Industries
Economics writer Michael Mandel of BusinessWeek points to a paper illustrating the effect the Internet has on distributing knowledge workers, as communication and collaboration between those individuals has become much easier.
This paper, "Are Elite Universities Losing Their Competitive Edge?", finds that during the 1970s, there was a positive effect for researchers to be affiliated with a top university--collaboration on research was much easier. This connection weakened during the 1980s and disappeared altogether during the 1990s, coincident with the rise of the Internet.
Because location is less of an issue, elite universities are having to pay much more money to attract and retain top talent.
As Mandel observes, this development has implications for the ability of non-elite schools to attract talent, but also for knowledge industries (and countries) generally:
Posted by John at 5:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackWith the Internet making collaboration at a distance easier, more stars seem to be operating out of non-elite schools, knowing they can still do research with colleagues at the prestigious schools. Among all articles published in the top 41 journals that were written by scholars at top-25 schools, the percentage of co-authored papers with colleagues in non-elite schools nearly doubled, from about 32% in the early 1970s to 61% in 2004.
As the authors say, this research has implications well beyond academia. Any knowledge-based industry that is geographically concentrated would seemingly be threatened with dispersal by the Internet. Think Silicon Valley. Or Manhattan. Or … the United States itself. Here’s the authors’ conclusion:
At the macro level, our results suggest that countries leading in technology may find it difficult to sustain their competitive advantage. Advances in information technology facilitate easier, low cost access to the technological frontier for researchers and knowledge coordinators worldwide, providing them with an opportunity to challenge the leadership roles in knowledge-based industries in a relatively short span of time.
Among College Students, iPods are More Popular than Beer
In biannual surveys among college students of what is most "in", beer has been the perennial winner since 1997, when it was breifly displaced by the Internet. In the latest survey conducted by Student Monitor, however, iPods finished first, ahead of beer. (Thanks to the Popular Science blog for the pointer.)
Posted by John at 4:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackMay 26, 2006
The Biggest Misunderstanding U.S. Policymakers Have About the Asian Economies
In the latest Far Eastern Economic Review, Stanford economics and business professor James Howell had a strongly worded answer in an interview in which he was asked what aspect of the Asian economies was most misunderstood by U.S. policymakers:
Posted by John at 4:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackI think I can find it in Mr. Bush’s State of the Union message. He called for an increased emphasis on R&D, and mentioned $50 billion a year. He said this was designed to combat Chinese and Indian technological pressure on the U.S. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a bigger non sequitur except from a seven year old. China and India are not major technological threats to the U.S. They might be in the distant future, but they are not now. What is essentially going on now is low-tech trade. If Mr. Bush wanted to help the U.S.—-as well as China and India—-he should encourage it. Because trade benefits all those who participate in it. Trade essentially increases the variety of goods, the cost of goods, and the quality of the goods in any country. Those three things combine to raise the incomes. So Sino-American trade, and Chinese exports, can raise incomes in both China and the U.S. American exports to China—-which are huge—-raise incomes on both sides of the Pacific. The other reason this is so ridiculous is because the biggest technological threats to the U.S. are from small European and Asian countries—-not from China or India.
March 28, 2006
"Flat World" Fact of the Day: Long Distance Education in Developing Countries
Seven of the world's largest distance education universities—-where students and faculty alike all use some form of computer-assisted learning—-are located in developing countries. [Emphasis mine] For these communities, educational resources available via the Internet can offer cutting-edge applications of cyberspace. Yet, roadblocks—-from inadequate national communications infrastructures to teachers reluctant to adapt to e-learning—-exist for the full success of online education for higher education. Meanwhile, the use of online delivery in corporate training is predicted to overtake higher education usage in developing countries, becoming an estimated $150 billion industry by 2025.
Thanks to the Poverty & Growth Blog for the pointer.
Posted by John at 10:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackMarch 16, 2006
Media Companies: Change or Die
In a speech in London on Monday night, Rupert Murdoch looked ahead into a future very different from the one in which he built his media empire. The Guardian reports:
"Power is moving away from the old elite in our industry - the editors, the chief executives and, let's face it, the proprietors," said Mr Murdoch, having flown into London from New York after celebrating his 75th birthday on Saturday.
Far from mourning its passing, he evangelised about a digital future that would put that power in the hands of those already launching a blog every second, sharing photos and music online and downloading television programmes on demand. "A new generation of media consumers has risen demanding content delivered when they want it, how they want it, and very much as they want it," he said. . . .
"It is difficult, indeed dangerous, to underestimate the huge changes this revolution will bring or the power of developing technologies to build and destroy - not just companies but whole countries."
The owner of Fox News added: "Never has the flow of information and ideas, of hard news and reasoned comment, been more important. The force of our democratic beliefs is a key weapon in the war against religious fanaticism and the terrorism it breeds."
. . . he combined his new-found enthusiasm for the digital future with a "change or die" message for the monolithic media empires of the 20th century.
"Societies or companies that expect a glorious past to shield them from the forces of change driven by advancing technology will fail and fall," he warned. "That applies as much to my own, the media industry, as to every other business on the planet.” . . .
He had some words of hope for his industry peers buffeted by declining circulations, free titles and the internet. "I believe traditional newspapers have many years of life but, equally, I think in the future that newsprint and ink will be just one of many channels to our readers," he said, predicting a future in which "media becomes like fast food" with consumers watching news, sport and film clips as they travel, on mobile phones or handheld wireless devices.
"Great journalism will always attract readers. The words, pictures and graphics that are the stuff of journalism have to be brilliantly packaged; they must feed the mind and move the heart," he enthused. . . .
. . . Mr Murdoch has undergone a Damascene conversion, admitting he hugely underestimated the power of the web. He said last night: "It is a creative, destructive technology that is still in its infancy, yet breaking and remaking everything in its path. We are all on a journey, not just the privileged few, and technology will take us to a destination that is defined by the limits of our creativity, our confidence and our courage."
I admire any person who, at age 75, is spending their days looking toward the future instead of resting on their accomplishments.
(Thanks to the POMO Blog for the pointer.)
Posted by John at 5:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackFebruary 19, 2006
Peruvian Farmers Using Podcasts to Improve Production
From the BBC:
. . . UK charity Practical Action has married old and new technology to podcast twice-monthly updates to eight information centres in the Cajamarca region.
These telecentres, many of which are run on solar power, automatically download the programmes onto CDs to rebroadcast them on local radio stations.
The charity has found it effective to distribute audio material to local people, who prefer listening in their own dialect to being sent the written word.
Each area within Cajamarca is sent information relevant to them.
In Chanta Alta, the podcasts concentrate on cattle-raising husbandry and on dairy production.
In nearby Chilete, podcasts are being used to give tips to farmers who have no experience of growing grapes.
Practical Action's team leader in Peru, Cecilia Fernandez Morales, told the BBC's Go Digital programme that managers are now training local people to make their own podcasts. . . .
(Thanks to Smart Mobs for the pointer.)
Posted by John at 1:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackFebruary 13, 2006
"Fill It Up, Give Me a Latté, and Tell Me about the Traffic on Georgia 400"
If Carlota Perez is a little too theoretical for you, with her ideas about "installation" and "deployment" of technology, turn to your USA Today. You’ll get a real life peak at deployment, which in Perez’s terminology is the widespread use of technological advances to create significant leaps in quality of life.
USA Today sees everyday gadgets "smarting off":
Posted by John at 5:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack. . . When you add information and communications to a product, it doesn't just improve that product — it allows that product to become part of a network. Which means those products can talk to other products, or to websites, or to you through your cellphone or PC — creating layer upon layer of new possibilities.
"It opens up innovation to all new things no one ever thought of," says Irving Wladawsky-Berger, in charge of IBM's technical strategy. . . .
Whirlpool's Duet Sport washing machine has embedded sensors that can set the water level depending on how big a load you put in. Down the road, Whirlpool and others plan to include sensors that can read bar codes or RFID tags on clothes so the machine can program appropriate wash settings.
Another appliance maker, Salton, has introduced the Beyond Microwave. When you need to heat packaged food, swipe the bar code past the microwave's reader. Stored inside are 4,000 settings for different products. A wireless Internet connection allows the microwave to download new ones all the time. Salton's microwave reads the bar code, sets the right time and power level, and all you do is push start.
Maya Design is bringing out a layer of technology it calls Home Heartbeat. It connects sensors on washing machines, microwaves, doors and other fixtures in a house. The system, in turn, can generate text messages that can be sent to a cellphone. So a homeowner can program the system to tell her every time the front door opens and the TV turns on — a good sign the kids arrived home from school.
On a more futuristic scale, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh and New Jersey Institute of Technology are working on nanotechnology that could change the nature of paint and carpets. Both could be connected to the home network, so you could use a computer to instruct the paint or carpeting to change colors. The nano-engineered molecules would do just that. The military is already beginning experimental use of the smart paint. . . .
Computer and networking technology is even making its way into the least glitzy of places — like the gas station. Gas pump maker Dresser Wayne in January unveiled its Ovation iX — a prototype pump with a flat-panel screen and a network-connected, Windows-based computer inside. "In addition to dispensing fuel, the Ovation iX lets customers (order) a cup of coffee, download MP3s, or check traffic conditions without ever leaving the pump," the company's literature says. . . .
January 4, 2006
Guest Predictions for 2006 from Wei Hu, Troutman Sanders
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Wei agreed to be one of guest prognosticators this week; here’s what he offers in looking ahead to 2006:
Posted by John at 11:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack[Front Page]The war in Iraq continues. Japanese Prime Minister worships war shrine for a fifth time during his tenure, resulting in intensified protest from China and Korea. India successfully launches satellite, eyeing future military as well as commercial applications. In the U.S. congress, sensible immigration legislation is stalled in the judicial committee, but starts to gain traction in support at the end of the year.
[Money] Property bubble on the west coast and northeast bursts, while property value in the South and Southeast holds firm. Dow breaks 11,000 early in the year, but stays not much higher than that mark at the end. Google stock declines.
[Technology] Netflix and Blockbuster online produce a combined rental volume surpassing that of Blockbuster's brick and mortar operations. BellSouth announces major divestiture together with major acquisition.
[Entertainment] Ziyi Zhang secures best actress nomination for Oscar.
[Sports] US soccer team advances to top four in the World Cup in Germany. Tiger Woods clinches three major titles, expecting his first daughter.
January 3, 2006
Guest Predictions for 2006 from John Daly
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John’s tremendous experience as a news anchor and television show host gives him an excellent perspective as he tracks media bias (of all kinds, not just right and left). His website is www.johndaly.tv.
John’s contribution to Tidbits’ guest predictions for 2006 is particularly interesting:
Posted by John at 11:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack2006 will certainly see the increasing use of the Internet in our elections and deciding our future. Parties and candidates will communicate, raise money, research and poll, create consensus, and distort their opponents’ views at a greater amount than ever before. 2006 will be the equivalent of Lyndon Johnson's Senatorial run in 1948 when he showed the political world how to use an airplane as a political tool. You'll remember in 2004, then candidate and current Democratic Chairman Howard Dean discovered the possibilities of the Internet by gathering a surprising amount of grass root donations on the web. This year in mid-term elections, most political operatives will mobilize their workers and supporters using the web to instantly hit our computers, RSS feeds, cell phones and video iPods which are becoming staples of life. If Tom Friedman is correct about the world being flat, then the use of the Internet will level the political playing field, if not for this year, certainly for 2008. Don't be surprised if we find a presidential dark horse candidate who rises amid the blogs and podcasts in late 2006.
Unfortunately, I do not foresee any candidate running for Congress stepping forward to address and try to resolve the problems of Social Security, Medicare, pork barrel spending, and worker re-education. The War in Iraq, or more specifically keeping fewer troops in Iraq, will most likely highlight any national debate. Of course, local and state issues will most likely hold the key to which party holds Congress.
December 9, 2005
Tracking Tommy
My pal Tommy Perkins, whose Digital Dharma blog we recommended to you, is moving to Weblogs, Inc., a complex of blogs operated by AOL.
We met Tommy during his journalism days in Memphis, after which we went on to get his MBA at the University of Texas. After graduating earlier this year Tommy is now working at Intel as a strategic financial analyst.
Talented guys like Tommy are on the move, and worth keeping up with. Check out his contributions to the blog channels Digital Music, Unofficial Google, and Unofficial Yahoo!.
Congratulations, Tommy, we’ll be reading!
Posted by John at 12:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackNovember 27, 2005
Tweener Technology Consultants
The Los Angeles Times reports on a very influential age group which consumer technology companies must pay special attention to:
When it comes to technology, Arden Arnold is the go-to guy in his house.
Mulling over an emergency backup power generator for the family, he researched all the choices before picking a Black & Decker Corp. Storm Station. He's interested in a new desktop computer, but it needs to have at least an 80-gigabyte hard drive, 512 megabytes of RAM and "a pretty good video card." And he's trying to persuade his mother to switch from Microsoft Corp.'s Hotmail to Google Inc.'s Gmail service.
"She pays for 1 gigabyte of storage, but Gmail gives you more than 2 gigabytes for free," he said. "And it has a very intuitive search function."
Arden is just 12 years old. But the influence the San Francisco sixth-grader wields makes marketers take notice. . . .
Tweens ages 8 to 12, according to the article, influence the purchase of some $60 billion of spending annually.
My five year old son is well on his way to influence some purchases of his own, too.
Posted by John at 8:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackNovember 26, 2005
IBM’s Head of Research on the Importance of Innovation
BusinessWeek’s Steve Hamm, in working on a story on smart machines, talked to IBM Head of Research Paul Horn regarding "autonomics," making machines into self-regulating, self-diagnoising systems like an automatic nervous system. Autonomics, Horn contends, could be America’s answer to outsourcing:
"I like to think of about it in terms of Thomas Friedman and the world being flat. The Internet allows the building of software and the management of computing operations to go to low-labor-cost geographies. Meanwhile, major pieces of the IT industry are commoditized--hardware, software, and services. So the labor goes to low-cost places. If you take labor out of computing through automation, you take the labor-cost factor out to some extent. When you do that, you can the place the work in high-labor-cost places."
"If you go out 10 to 20 years, the more you can take labor out of the equation, the better it is for the more innovative and high-labor-cost parts of the world. It makes succeeding in services more about who has the best technology to get the work done fastest--not who has the lowest labor costs. In this way, a highly innovative society can trump a lower-labor-cost society."
In a couple of paragraphs Horn captures the vital stake the United States has in maintaining and enhancing a business environment which fosters innovation and creativity.
Posted by John at 6:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackSeptember 24, 2005
The Unpredictability of Technological Innovation
Harvard Business School Professor Robert Austin was interviewed by HBS Working Knowledge on a new book he co-edited with fellow HBS professor Stephen Bradley. The book, The Broadband Explosion, explores what a truly interactive world might look like. Wisely, however, Austin notes that the ripple effects from technological innovations like broadband are quite unpredictable:
. . . A lot of the benefits from the broadband explosion will probably arise from non-obvious, second-order effects—things we can't see clearly right now. The human tendency in trying to predict what will happen in the future is to extrapolate in a straight line from today. So we imagine doing more of what we do with communication today when we have more bandwidth. But that's a mistake made clear by the parallel to the '60s and '70s and computer power. Moore's Law was at work making chips more and more powerful at lower and lower prices, but early on people could not see what we would do with all that computing power. At the time they were mostly using computers as big calculators or big transaction-processing machines (for doing accounting or payroll, for example). And they looked around and asked themselves, "How many paychecks are there to process in the world?" Fortunately, there were other visionaries who saw that we'd use a lot of that power to change the way we interacted with computers, by making user interfaces more friendly, for example. Back then, people who said, "What will we use all that computing power for?" were surprised by how useful it was and the ways it turned out to be useful. Today we have some skeptics saying pretty much the same thing: "What will we do with all that bandwidth?" I suspect the answers will be similarly surprising. . .
We invariably underestimate or even fail to consider how technological innovation can transform even the most mundane task or industry, yet such advances drive productivity and economic growth.
Posted by John at 5:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackJuly 30, 2005
Opening Up Apple
My friend Tommy Perkins has a blog, Digital Dharma, you should pay attention to if you’re interested in digital distribution of content. I met Tommy while he was writing for the Memphis Business Journal. He left journalism to go to the University of Texas, from where he just graduated with his M.B.A.
Tommy just posted an excellent analysis of the issues surrounding Apple’s iPod, iTunes, and whether Apple should open up the iPod format. Take a look and keep an eye on Tommy; he’s a talented person who’s going places.
Posted by John at 5:01 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackJune 20, 2005
"Pay As You Drive" Auto Insurance
U.K. insurer Norwich Union is conducting a pilot for "Pay As You Drive" auto insurance. The program, aimed at young drivers seeking to lower their premiums, involves the installation of a global positioning device which monitors the operation and location of the vehicle.
For example, Norwich Union's research reveals that drivers age 18-21 are much more likely to have accidents from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m., with a much higher chance of serious injury or fatality. On the other hand, this age group has markedly fewer accidents in daytime hours.
This pilot, which started with 5,000 volunteers, has been expanded by Norwich Union due to high demand, according to Springwise.com.
Norwich Union doesn't appear to offer the inevitable next step quite yet: a GPS device which also monitors speed of the vehicle. Conservative drivers (who don't mind their insurance company monitoring where they're going) will likely welcome a device that better proves their safe driving habits, therefore lowering premiums.
Here's a great example of applied technology potentially overhauling an "old economy" industry. Insurers could more efficiently price risks where potential loss actually resides, allowing them to lower prices for their best customers, low-risk drivers. Underwriters would be able to lower their risk profile and increase loss predictability, likely causing, in turn, more stable earnings and possibly a higher stock market multiple.
Posted by John at 6:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackJune 13, 2005
Bloglet
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Posted by Ryan at 10:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackFebruary 17, 2005
Another Nail in the Coffin of the Recording Industry
Speaking of the twilight of sovereignty, we just witnessed another nail in the coffin of the recording industry as we know it. Consider the case of Maria Schneider, who won a Grammy during Sunday's awards for her album "Concert in the Garden." Not one copy of "Concert in the Garden" has ever been sold in a record store. CNET News.com reports:
. . . Schneider, 44, financed her Grammy-winning album through an Internet-based music delivery service called ArtistShare that opens the financing of production to dedicated fans.
Schneider said she believed she might be the first artist ever to win a Grammy for an album distributed solely on the Web. But she said that other musicians had already approached her about trying similar experiments of their own.
"It's been very gratifying for me. It's a new way for fans to be closer to artists and artists to be closer to fans," Schneider told reporters after receiving her award.
"They (fans) came into the project long before I completed my CD," she said.
Schneider, who was ArtistShare's first participating artist, said she had funded the cost of her original budget before she started recording, an anomaly in recording, particularly with jazz albums.
The "Concert in the Garden" CD was limited to 10,000 copies, with 9,000 available for pre-order to participants and 1,000 held in reserve for later auction, through ArtistShare.
"This record cost $87,000 to make. I already made my money back," she said. "I'm not splitting the profits with the distributor, the record store and the record company. It's working so well for me". . .
It's an active affirmation of "The Long Tail" theory, so well articulated by Chris Anderson in Wired magazine last fall.
Maria Schneider's website is hosted by ArtistShare, a service allowing direct communication--even collaboration--between an artist and their fans. Schneider's site includes its own free streaming radio of Schneider's work, which I'm listening to as I write these words.
How long do you think it will be until an artist wins a Grammy without selling a single physical copy of their work?
Posted by John at 8:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackFebruary 16, 2005
Success Through Failure for HP's CEO
Graef Crystal, columnist for Bloomberg News and former compensation consultant, reveals that former HP Chief Executive Officer Carly Fiorina actually received more by failing than she would have received if she had succeeded in her job. You can read more by following this link, but an excerpt follows:
The only way Carly Fiorina could have hoped to receive $21.4 million was to be ousted from her post as chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard Co. . . .
Let's start with the $14 million in cash that she was handed in accordance with Hewlett-Packard's formal severance pay policy. That was 2.5 times her salary and target bonus of last year.
That sounds innocent enough; many companies offer a multiple of 3, not 2.5. Fiorina's target bonus -- the bonus that is hypothetically payable for achieving but not exceeding performance targets for a given year -- turns out to have been 300 percent of salary. In dollars, her target bonus for fiscal year 2004, which ended this past Oct. 31, was $4.2 million.
For a target bonus, that's wildly high. Most companies' target bonuses are in the 100 percent to 125 percent of salary range. I examined bonuses paid for 2003 to 495 CEOs running U.S. companies with market caps of $3 billion or more. I found that in 46 cases a CEO earned an actual bonus -- not just a target bonus -- of 300 percent of salary or more. That's only 9 percent of the CEOs. . . .
It's ironic that during her tenure, Fiorina didn't perform up to target. Her full-year bonuses for the fiscal years 2000 through 2004 ranged from 0 percent of salary in fiscal years 2001 to 293 percent of salary in fiscal 2002. But for the second half of fiscal 2002 and the first half of fiscal 2003, her target bonus was increased to 400 percent of salary from 300 percent in recognition of the heavy lifting she was doing with the Compaq merger. What a hoot. She never came close to earning the target bonus that she has now been paid 2.5 times over. . . .
Crystal goes on to detail a pay package which has to be read to be believed. For example, the compensation committee of HP's board ignored its own criteria and awarded Fiorina an extra bonus of $567,000 during the company's fourth fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2004, just a few months before she was fired.
The line of applicants to become Fiorina's successor must be a mile long, no?
Posted by John at 11:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackFebruary 14, 2005
Monkey See, Monkey Do
January 30, 2005: SBC to Acquire AT&T for $16 Billion
February 14, 2005: Verizon Agrees to Buy MCI for $6.75 Billion
February 11, 2005
Learning from HP's Mistakes
Let's remember some bigger picture investing lessons from the travails of HP, courtesy of Forbes publisher Rich Karlgaard. In this morning's Wall Street Journal he offers an editorial (subscription required) entitled "Carly Fiorina's Seven Deadly Sins." His commentary contains some excellent lessons for investors, touching on several themes to which we pay close attention at our firm:
. . . 2. Failing to see the cheap revolution. Carly allowed HP to drift onto the wrong side of the defining divide in the global economy. The cheap revolution has two elements: plummeting hardware costs combined with the Web-mediated ability to run world-class operations from anywhere. Dell is on the right side of the cheap revolution divide. It sells powerful servers for under $5,000 and keeps overhead low in Round Rock, Texas, where the average three-bedroom house sells for $200,000. HP sells servers for tens of thousands and keeps high overhead in Palo Alto, Calif., where the average three-bedroom sells for $1,500,000.
IBM's deal to combine its personal computer business with that of China's Lenovo is one effort by that elephant to get on the right side of not only the "cheap revolution," but the "size revolution" covered below. One way to judge the management qualities of larger companies is the realignments they make to handle these two "revolutions."
3. Failing to see the consumer revolution. A huge shift has occurred in the last five years. The coolest tech products now go straight into the consumer market. Until a few years ago, most got a footing in the business market first: Copiers, PCs and cellphones were expensive products that only became cheap riding the Moore's Law curve over time. Today, the most transformative products and services go straight for the consumer: Blackberry, Apple iPod, eBay, Orbitz, Google, WiFi and so on. Carly has ineffectively maneuvered HP into this consumer field.
The MIT Technology Review has found a group of radiologists using their iPods to move their patient's images across departments and workstations where they work. Business adopts a consumer product.
4. Obsession with size over flexibility. Carly is blamed for ignoring a tech truism that large mergers never work. Maybe we need to go deeper and challenge the very premise of these mergers: that large scale is a requirement of success in the global economy. By merging with Compaq, Carly clearly believed this. But maybe the opposite is true -- that speed and flexibility now trump scale. The cheap revolution has armed startups and small companies with powerful, cheap technology and access to global labor pools. You don't need a large organizational unit to manage your outsourcing initiative. Just go to www.elance.com. . . .
When you hear a CEO talk about scale, just think "bathroom scales." Heavier is unhealthy in today's economy.
Posted by John at 8:45 AM | Comments (0)Who's Really the Stupid Nimrod?
The business press dumping on Carly Fiorina since her resignation from Hewlett-Packard earlier this week seems disingenuous to me. The problem with televised business news is the same problem with televised news in general: there's too much focus on the rise and fall, triumph and failure, success and scandal of "rock stars" whose images are created by those image she garnered.
It's easy to put the blame for HP's failures solely on Ms. Fiorina's shoulders, but the ill-fated deal to buy Compaq did get approved by the board of directors of HP. Funny, I haven't seen any HP board resignations this week.
Moreover, the shareholders of HP also approved the deal. Because of the proxy fight over the deal initiated by Walter Hewlett, a former HP board member and son of HP co-founder Bill Hewlett, the pros and cons of acquiring Compaq were aired ad nauseam. Shareholders had their opportunity to sell their HP shares at that time at much higher prices than today's quote. Moreover, they've had that same opportunity every day the stock market has been open for business since the deal closed.
The lesson: when you make an investment mistake, focus on the reasons you really made that mistake. Did you really do all the homework you should have? Did you believe what you really wanted to believe? Did you let euphoria overwhelm logic?
When I screw up, I'm angry. Sure, I'm mad at the stupid bunch of nimrods to whom I entrusted my firm's and my client's money. I let them know about it, trust me.
Focusing on the anger, however, won't help prevent similar mistakes in the future. After all, I'm the stupid nimrod that made the final decision. Dispassionately analyzing my own mistakes which led to the loss in the first place is the only way I know to effectively prevent the same mistake from recurring. A shareholder in Hewlett-Packard (fortunately we're not one) who wallows in the Carly Fiorina blame game going on right now stands a good chance to be a sucker who'll lose more money in the long run. Don't be one of those people.
Posted by John at 8:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack