Why is there such a gap between the conventional wisdom about America's future and the actual trends? Part of the answer involves the bias toward sensationalism that afflicts all commercial media. Another factor is the distortion of the facts by special interests. For example, the myth of the social security crisis has been spread by, among others, people in the securities industry who would like to see this successful public pension programme privatised.

The US is facing major challenges—but they are not the ones usually identified. Long-term racial and linguistic balkanisation may not be a problem, but class lines in the US are hardening; there is now less social mobility in the US than in Europe. The US is not in danger of becoming a theocracy, but it is in danger of becoming a plutocracy. Social security does not threaten to bankrupt America, but healthcare cost inflation does. The US is not going to be eclipsed any time soon by another superpower, but it may exhaust itself by allowing its commitments to exceed the resources that the public is willing to allot to foreign policy. The sooner the mythical problems can be dismissed, the sooner the genuine challenges to America's future can be identified and addressed.