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January 31, 2008
Congestion in New Delhi
The number of privately-owned cars in New Delhi is rising at the rate of 1000 a day, according to this National Public Radio report.
Posted by John at 6:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackChess Lessons for Business and Government
John Kay uses Fischer vs. Spassky and the Cold War to illustrate the futility of master planning, whether in business or politics:
. . . People who hold to a single idea, or a fixed design, generally lose in chess, as they lose in battle, in business and in economics. Great chess players apply a variety of principles, they sense patterns, they hold a formidable range of models and analyses in their mind without being a slave to any of them.
As in chess, so it is in business and finance. We cope with an uncertain world through incremental and mostly unsuccessful innovation, not through extensive visions of the future. That is both why computer chess is not very interesting and why market systems outperformed planned economies. And why people who seek to remodel politics or business with grand designs are as mad as Bobby Fischer and far more dangerous.
Read Kay's entire essay here, and remember it as you listen to presidential candidates' plans on how they will "manage the economy" and make our lives better.
Posted by John at 5:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Thursday, January 31, 2008
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January 30, 2008
Despite the Gloom, Buying in the Auto Industry
Brian Wesbury, in his bullish take on the U.S. economy, noted that Wilbur Ross is a buyer. He's not just a buyer; he's buying Detroit:
Wilbur Ross remains confident that there is money to be made in the automotive industry even as the industry faces down a national recession that could cause vehicle sales to drop.. . .
Ross, who made billions of dollars in the 1990s reorganizing steel companies, predicts U.S. vehicle sales will fall by 750,000 units this year, but said his firm continues to look for supplier bargains. . . . [Source: Crain's Detroit Business]
Ross's International Automotive Components now has over $5.5 billion in revenues, produced by 28,000 employees working in manufacturing facilities located in 16 different countries around the world.
Posted by John at 5:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackIt's the Economy, Stupid, and It's in Remarkably Good Shape
Brian Wesbury, as he often does, cuts through the gloom about the U.S. economy:
. . . .If the U.S. financial system is really as fragile as many people say, why should we go to such lengths to save it? If a $100 billion, or even $300 billion, loss in the subprime loan world can cause the entire system to collapse, maybe we should be working hard to build a better system that is stronger and more reliable.
Pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the economy and pumping up government spending by giving money away through rebates may create more problems than it helps to solve. Kicking the can down the road is not a positive policy.
The irony is almost too much to take. Yesterday everyone was worried about excessive consumer spending, a lack of saving, exploding debt levels, and federal budget deficits. Today, our government is doing just about everything in its power to help consumers borrow more at low rates, while it is running up the budget deficit to get people to spend more. This is the tyranny of the urgent in an election year and it's the development that investors should really worry about. It reads just like the 1970s.
The good news is that the U.S. financial system is not as fragile as many pundits suggest. Nor is the economy showing anything other than normal signs of stress. Assuming a 1.5% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter, real GDP will have grown by 2.8% in the year ending in December 2007 and 3.2% in the second half during the height of the so-called credit crunch. Initial unemployment claims, a very consistent canary in the coal mine for recessions, are nowhere near a level of concern.
Because all debt rests on a foundation of real economic activity, and the real economy is still resilient, the current red alert about a crashing house of cards looks like another false alarm. Warren Buffett, Wilbur Ross and Bank of America are buying, and there is still $1.1 trillion in corporate cash on the books. The bench of potential buyers on the sidelines is deep and strong. Dow 15,000 looks much more likely than Dow 10,000. Keep the faith and stay invested. It's a wonderful buying opportunity.
Wesbury's essay is worth reading in full for its explanation of the differences between the Great Depression and where we are today.
Posted by John at 5:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackChina Mobile
China now has over 547 million mobile phone users, which represents a penetration rate of more than 41%. [Source: TelecomAsia.net]
Posted by John at 5:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Wednesday, January 30, 2008
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January 29, 2008
Quote of the Day for Tuesday, January 29, 2008
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January 28, 2008
India's Consumer Sector Grows and Moves Beyond Necessities
McKinsey estimates that household spending in India will quadruple by 2025, creating the fifth largest consumer economy in the world. India is in twelfth position now. McKinsey believes that India's most affluent consumers will outnumber not only the comparable demographic in China but the entire current population of Australia.
The country's rising amount of aggregate disposal income will change the proportional amounts spent on necessities such as food and clothing. While 61% of Indian household spending was devoted to food and clothing in 1995, by 2025 this proportion will drop to 30%, McKinsey estimates. Spending on transportation, personal products and services, education, recreation, and health care is forecast to expand in aggregate from 22% of Indian household spending in 1995 to 52% by 2025.
See more here.
Posted by John at 4:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Monday, January 28, 2008
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January 27, 2008
Quote of the Day for Sunday, January 27, 2008
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January 26, 2008
Market Forces Swinging More in Favor of China's Migrant Workers
The Sydney Morning Herald has a report:
Posted by John at 6:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackChina's vast migrant labour market is bifurcating. One branch is made up of the old . . . who know nothing about rights, have no sense of entitlement and accept whatever treatment is dealt them. The rest are the worldly, internet-savvy young who know how quickly the world is changing in their favour. . . . [they] are canvassing job options, taking on the system and learning how to wield a transformative asset that ordinary Chinese workers have not known for 5000 years: bargaining power.
Their leverage has partly improved because the Government is starting to enforce its labour laws. Mainly, however, workers are becoming more valuable because China's seemingly endless supply of cheap peasant labour is starting to dry up.
"In every place in China there is a shortage of labour," says Professor Lu Ming, a labour expert at Fudan. "That means employers have to improve workplace conditions and governments have to improve labour institutions - and both of these will lead to higher wages."
The same Fudan University study that showed how bad conditions were also revealed how rapidly they are improving. It said average migrant worker wages rose 20 per cent last year, to 1200 yuan. . . .
Employers have been forced to improve conditions to stop workers going elsewhere. Cities and provinces are also competing to enforce more effective regulations and provide the kind of environment to which migrant workers are willing to return. . . .
India Facts of the Day
Shashi Tharoor, blogging from Davos, offers some very interesting facts on India:
Posted by John at 5:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack--One hundred fifty of the Fortune 500 companies have established R&D operations in India.
--In 2002, more people traveled by train in one day in India than by plane in an entire year.
--Of the 300 million children in India between the ages of 6 and 16 today, 270 million will reach adulthood without the benefit of a formal education.
Quote of the Day for Saturday, January 26, 2008
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January 25, 2008
Another Sign of Rising Prosperity in China
China's divorce rate is up by 20% over the past year.
Posted by John at 7:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackStock Losses in Perspective
From late December until the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut earlier this week, most major stock indices had dropped by 10%-20%. The Progressive Policy Institute estimates that the total worldwide loss in market capitalization was about $9 trillion, which is roughly equal to:
--the combined GDP of China, India, and Southeast Asia combined, or
--the U.S. economy minus southern states, or
--the combined GDP of Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and the Netherlands.
Posted by John at 4:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Quote of the Day for Friday, January 25, 2008
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January 24, 2008
Why the Miami Chamber of Commerce Owes Hugo Chavez One
The New York Times reports on the substantial relocation of many middle- and upper-income Venezuelans to Miami since Hugo Chavez came to power:
Posted by John at 11:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackAccording to census data, the Venezuelan community in the United States has grown more than 94 percent this decade, from 91,507 in 2000, the year after Mr. Chávez took office, to 177,866 in 2006. Much of that rise has occurred in South Florida, making the Venezuelan community one of the fastest growing Latino subpopulations in the region this decade. In many ways, the Venezuelan influx is reminiscent of the Cuban migration spurred by Fidel Castro’s overthrow of Fulgencio Batista in 1959 and his imposition of a socialist state. . . .
Sinking their roots into the South Florida soil, Venezuelans have shifted their money into American banks, married and divorced, opened businesses, become active in local politics, and seen their children graduate from American schools. . . .
The growing Venezuelan population has been a windfall for Miami banks, as many Venezuelans bring their money here. Ken Thomas, a banking analyst in Miami, said the amount of that capital flight was unclear, although he said it was “clearly in the billions.”
Quote of the Day for Thursday, January 24, 2008
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January 23, 2008
Quote of the Day for Wednesday, January 23, 2008
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January 22, 2008
Innovation and Creativity Don't Mix with Politics
Richard Florida has some depressingly accurate comments on how little our political system and its politicians care about innovation and creativity, two big subjects which have a lot to do with our future prosperity:
Posted by John at 5:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackInnovative businesses have realized that politics is beyond dysfunction. I learned a lot in my short years in Washington DC. Nobody cares about this stuff. And that goes way, way beyond the Bush Administration, people: just try to find someone on Capitol Hill who cares. Cutting edge companies are walled off in Silicon Valley and many are globalizing to gain access to the talent they need. Their bets are well hedged. The US is a collection of innovative, talent attracting region, embedded in a nation and political system that is increasingly, if strangely, at odds with their needs and requirements. . . .
Who among the current crop of candidates - in either party - has a theory of America's role in the world economy? Who among them has said a word about creativity and innovation? Who among them has uttered a peep about how to extend the innovative, creative, and entrepreneurial regional engines of the economy into a broad and shared prosperity. Silence, as the old adage goes, is deafening - and also very, very telling.
Quote of the Day for Tuesday, January 22, 2008
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January 21, 2008
"His Truth is Marching On"
Quote of the Day for Monday, January 21, 2008
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January 20, 2008
A Peek Inside a Nevada Democratic Caucus Room
My pal John Daly was on the ground at a Nevada Democratic caucus.
Posted by John at 8:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackFleeting Benefits from a Delta Merger
Posted by John at 7:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack. . . Any cost reductions, for example, could easily be eaten up by higher wages required to win labor’s support for a deal. And because one big merger could prompt a second — Continental Airlines is expected by many analysts to snap up United, Northwest or another carrier as a defensive gesture against Delta — any advantage provided by a bigger route system might be quickly neutralized.
They are unlikely to win over travelers, too. Big mergers could mean less service to some markets, as a newly combined airline might wipe out thousands of jobs by scaling back at smaller hubs. Fliers could expect a surge in delays as combining operations and computer systems would most likely create service meltdowns.
"A merger almost inevitably is going to cause some service problems,” said Philip A. Baggaley, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s who is dubious on the business benefits of combinations. . . .
The Internet vs. The Mob
Small business owners in Sicily, weary of long years of forking over protection money to the Mafia, are using the Internet to more effectively band together and find strength in numbers:
. . . The businesses are openly defying the Mafia by signing on to a Web site called "Addiopizzo" (Goodbye Pizzo), which brings together businesses in the Sicilian capital that are resisting extortion.
The campaign was launched in 2004 by a group of youths thinking of opening a pub. They started off by plastering Palermo with anti-pizzo fliers, reading "An ENTIRE PEOPLE WHO PAYS THE PIZZO IS A PEOPLE WITHOUT DIGNITY," and eventually brought their campaign online where it struck a profound chord with Sicilians fed up with Mafia bullying.
Confindustria, the industrialists' lobby, has also boosted the movement with a threat to expel members who pay protection money. Its Sicilian branch has gone through a list of pizzo-paying companies found in a raid on a top Mafia boss' hideout, and this month began summoning heads of those companies to demand to know if they indeed had been paying and should be drummed out of the politically influential lobby. . . .
Read the full account courtesy of Wired; thanks to TP Wire Service for the pointer.
Posted by John at 7:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Sunday, January 20, 2008
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January 19, 2008
Who's Building the Border Fence?
The Wall Street Journal's Mary Anastasia O'Grady fills us in:
Quote of the Day for Saturday, January 19, 2008
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January 18, 2008
Boomer Demographics Don't Bode Well for Housing
The Economist explores the end of the "generational housing bubble", the effect aging Baby Boomers will have on housing prices in coming years:
This phenomenon will unfold differently across the country. Some states will begin the sell-off later than others. In 15 southern and western states—including the retirement magnets of Florida and Arizona—the elderly do not become net sellers until their 70s. Expensive states such as California and the cold states of the midwest and north-east are likely to lose them more quickly. The mismatch between buyers and sellers may be most acute in the rustbelt, where numbers of young people and immigrants are rising slowly, if at all, says William Frey of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank.
The equation is pretty simple: Baby Boomers haven't reproduced fast enough to have enough people to buy their homes for what they paid for them. Immigrants, anyone?
Posted by John at 5:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackEconomic Consequences of Local Immigration Laws Continue to Spread
The New York Times takes a look at Waukegan, Illinois, as a microcosm of the effect federal immigration enforcement raids are having on not just undocumented Hispanic immigrants, but on legal citizens and local economies as well:
From Illinois to Georgia to Arizona, these families are hiding in plain sight, to avoid being detected by immigration agents and deported. They do their shopping in towns distant from home, avoid parties and do not take vacations. They stay away from ethnic stores, forgo doctor’s visits and meetings at their children’s schools, and postpone girls’ normally lavish quinceañeras, or 15th birthday parties.
They avoid the police, even hesitating to report crimes.
Stores catering to Hispanic immigrants in places like Atlanta and Cincinnati have closed because of the drop in customers. Michael L. Barrera, president of the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, said anecdotal reports had indicated that small storefront businesses had been the hardest hit by a sharp decline in spending by immigrants.
“The [federal immigration] raids have really spooked them in a big way,” said Douglas S. Massey, a Princeton demographer who has studied Mexican immigrants for three decades.
There are economic consequences to be paid for the stance some communities and states have taken toward immigrants, and we're seeing it, vividly, across the country. In case you missed the story, Oklahoma has been particularly affected.
Posted by John at 5:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackWant A 10 Million Dollar Bill to Stuff in Your Pocket?
It will only cost you $4 U.S. dollars, if you go to Zimbabwe. Inflation has gotten so bad in Zimbabwe's teetering economy that the government is planning on issuing a 10-million dollar bill. On the "black" market (in this case, the free market), this note would be worth the equivalent of $4 U.S.
Officially, inflation is estimated at 25,000%, while many independent observers estimate the actual rate to be 150,000%.
Posted by John at 5:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Friday, January 18, 2008
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January 17, 2008
Getting More Bang for the Buck in Asia
Since 2002, the $240 billion gain in U.S. energy imports equals and may exceed, depending on year end trade statstics, the total growth in imports, over the same time period, from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Sinapore combined. [Source: PPI]
It's fair to say that our Asian trading partners are giving us a lot more for our money, too. While the tab for energy imports has tripled over the last five years, our actual usage has increased only 10%.
Posted by John at 4:19 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Quote of the Day for Thursday, January 17, 2008
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January 16, 2008
Beware of Talk of "Energy Independence"
As you listen to presidential candidates of both parties prattle on about how their plans to make the U.S. "energy independent", consider Robert Bryce's five myths of energy independence.
One notion holds that energy independence will reduce terrorism, since our dollars won't be funneled back to the Middle East and ultimately into the hands of terrorists. It's a little naive to think that taking our business away from Saudi Arabia will prevent attacks like that of 9-11, says Bryce. According to the 9-11 Commission, those attacks cost about $400,000 to $500,000 to plan and execute. That's the cost of an angel venture capital deal, not what it costs to bail out Citigroup.
Bryce also notes that the new energy bill "requires" 36 billion gallons of biofuel production nationally by 2022. By contrast, we import about 200 billion gallons of oil a year now. Further, if the entire U.S. production capacity of corn was devoted to biofuels, this move would replace only 6% of the country's oil consumption. That places the shameless sucking up to Iowa corn farmers we saw a couple of weeks ago in perspective, doesn't it?
Read more of Bryce's energy myth busters here. His new book, Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence, will be released in March.
Posted by John at 5:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Wednesday, January 16, 2008
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January 15, 2008
Rules for Pundits
As you watch cable news talking heads shows, you should remember the "10 Commandments of Punditry" offered by the Foreign Policy Passport blog. Read them all; they'll provide immediate help and guidance as you listen to the "experts"; here's a few I particularly enjoyed:
Posted by John at 5:42 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackThou shalt not waste “time in the field.” Your 10 minutes chatting with the taxi driver on the way from your four-star hotel to the first-class lounge at the airport is enough to provide unique insight into what “the street is thinking.” The same goes for that night you spent in a hotel inside the Green Zone. You are Dr. Livingston back from the wilds, Achilles back from the front lines of war. Upon your return, write an op-ed, hold a press conference, and go on the talk-show circuit. These are far more worthwhile activities.
Thou shalt not commit the sin of Footnotes. If you want to go primetime, you must wisely invest your energies in writing 700-word op-eds and jetting between press appearances, not the humdrum of actual book research. However, you need not waste the opportunity to make manna out of all that public exposure. Slap those op-eds together into a book, so that you have something to flog in your bio line.
Thou shalt not misuse the title of “former.” The three months that you were principal deputy under assistant secretary in the waning days of the Harding administration give you a knowledge that is supreme. It must be cited upon all occasions. Your data may be years outdated and your title may start with “former” because you were fired for incompetence and indicted for corruption, but this matters not to a Pundit; the TV host will never introduce that part of your resume to the audience.
Quote of the Day for Tuesday, January 15, 2008
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January 14, 2008
Who's the Damsel in Distress, and Who's Got the Cash?
Isn't it ironic that there's seemingly a debate among Chinese officials about whether an investment in one America's largest banks--Citigroup--is a sound investment opportunity? (Read more in the Wall Street Journal.)
I've expressed my skepticism about the multiples at which Chinese banks trade, but based on recent track records, it's a lot harder to find evidence that Citigroup is a markedly better managed bank than ICBC, China's largest bank. In fact, as recently as a year ago, most knowledgeable observers would have sooner bet that ICBC would be much more likely to announce a $24 billion write-down in asset values than Citigroup, yet the latter looks poised to not only to post a massive write-down, but to slash the dividend and eliminate thousands of jobs in order to "stabilize its finances", as one press account put it.
Not only is Citigroup the winner of this meltdown derby, but they're apparently getting turned down by the Chinese in their quest for capital to plug the holes.
ICBC and other large Chinese banks could end up in similarly tough straits when the Chinese economy has its own stormy weather. The irony of what's happening now, however, is simply delectable.
Posted by John at 9:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Monday, January 14, 2008
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January 13, 2008
Why Explore Space?
The New York Times has a Freakonomics quorum on whether manned space exploration is worth the cost; it's an extended discussion but worth your time. [Thanks to Slashdot.org for the heads up.] Here are a few samples to whet your appetite:
Joan Vernikos, former Director of NASA's Life Sciences Division, offers an extended answer to the question which reads in part:
. . . Economic, scientific and technological returns of space exploration have far exceeded the investment. Globally, 43 countries now have their own observing or communication satellites in Earth orbit. Observing Earth has provided G.P.S., meteorological forecasts, predictions and management of hurricanes and other natural disasters, and global monitoring of the environment, as well as surveillance and intelligence. Satellite communications have changed life and business practices with computer operations, cell phones, global banking, and TV. Studying humans living in the microgravity of space has expanded our understanding of osteoporosis and balance disorders, and has led to new treatments. Wealth-generating medical devices and instrumentation such as digital mammography and outpatient breast biopsy procedures and the application of telemedicine to emergency care are but a few of the social and economic benefits of manned exploration that we take for granted.
Space exploration is not a drain on the economy; it generates infinitely more than wealth than it spends. Royalties on NASA patents and licenses currently go directly to the U.S. Treasury, not back to NASA. I firmly believe that the Life Sciences Research Program would be self-supporting if permitted to receive the return on its investment. NASA has done so much with so little that it has generally been assumed to have had a huge budget. In fact, the 2007 NASA budget of $16.3 billion is a minute fraction of the $13 trillion total G.D.P.
Keith Cowing, editor of NASAWatch.com, comments in part:
Posted by John at 8:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack. . . Asking if space exploration — with humans or robots or both — is worth the effort is like questioning the value of Columbus’s voyages to the New World in the late 1490s. The promise at the time was obvious to some, but not to others. Is manned space exploration worth the cost? If we Americans do not think so, then why is it that nations such as China and India — nations with far greater social welfare issues to address with their limited budgets — are speeding up their space exploration programs? What is it about human space exploration that they see? Could it be what we once saw, and have now forgotten?
As such, my response is another question: for the U.S. in the twenty-first century, is not sending humans into space worth the cost?
Quote of the Day for Sunday, January 13, 2008
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January 12, 2008
Money and Votes
FactCheck.org reminds us that garnering the most money doesn't equate to getting the most votes in a presidential election. My favorite example among the many cited is John Connally, the first presidential candidate to turn down federal subsidies in order to be free of spending limits. He spent $11 million, got one delegate to the 1980 Republican convention, and was on hand to see Ronald Reagan win the party's nomination that year.
Posted by John at 9:48 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackGooglevision
Matsushita is teaming with Google:
Matsushita and Google have jointly developed equipment to show content from YouTube, an internet video clip website, clearly on large TV screens. The new Viera plasma TVs, which will debut in the spring in the US, will also include access to Picasa Web Albums, a free online photo-sharing service from Google.
Toshihiro Sakamoto, president of Panasonic AVC Networks, said: "This is the first time mainstream consumers will be able to easily enjoy YouTube videos from the living room with the enhanced quality of a fully integrated widescreen TV experience." [Source: Financial Times]
Yoshi Yamada, head of Panasonic's North American operations, went on to tell the Financial Times that his commodity-oriented products need Google's content to differentiate them in the market.
Here's a company barely ten years old giving a seventy-something year old product a new reason to live.
Posted by John at 7:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Saturday, January 12, 2008
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January 11, 2008
Learning to Hate Free Enterprise in French and German
Stefan Theil, Newsweek’s European economics editor, explains that France and Germany give their citizens a fearful view of capitalism and entrepreneurship very early: textbooks and economics courses teach students that free enterprise is the source of many of the world's ills. You can read the complete article from Foreign Policy here; a tidbit follows:
Posted by John at 6:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack“Economic growth imposes a hectic form of life, producing overwork, stress, nervous depression, cardiovascular disease and, according to some, even the development of cancer,” asserts the three-volume Histoire du XXe siècle, a set of texts memorized by countless French high school students as they prepare for entrance exams to Sciences Po and other prestigious French universities. The past 20 years have “doubled wealth, doubled unemployment, poverty, and exclusion, whose ill effects constitute the background for a profound social malaise,” the text continues. Because the 21st century begins with “an awareness of the limits to growth and the risks posed to humanity [by economic growth],” any future prosperity “depends on the regulation of capitalism on a planetary scale.” Capitalism itself is described at various points in the text as “brutal,” “savage,” “neoliberal,” and “American.” This agitprop was published in 2005, not in 1972.
When French students are not getting this kind of wildly biased commentary on the destruction wreaked by capitalism, they are learning that economic progress is also the root cause of social ills. For example, a one-year high school course on the inner workings of an economy developed by the French Education Ministry called Sciences Economiques et Sociales, spends two thirds of its time discussing the sociopolitical fallout of economic activity. Chapter and section headings include “Social Cleavages and Inequality,” “Social Mobilization and Conflict,” “Poverty and Exclusion,” and “Globalization and Regulation.” The ministry mandates that students learn “worldwide regulation as a response” to globalization. Only one third of the course is about companies and markets, and even those bits include extensive sections on unions, government economic policy, the limits of markets, and the dangers of growth. The overall message is that economic activity has countless undesirable effects from which citizens must be protected.
. . . Start-ups, Histoire du XXe siècle tells its students, are “audacious enterprises” with “ill-defined prospects.” Then it links entrepreneurs with the tech bubble, the Nasdaq crash, and mass layoffs across the economy. (Think “creative destruction” without the “creative.”) In one widely used text, a section on technology and innovation does not mention a single entrepreneur or company. Instead, students read a lengthy treatise on whether technological progress destroys jobs. . . .
Developing Multinationals
The Economist offers an extensive overview of the rapidly growing numbers of multinationals going global from China, India, Brazil, and other developing economies. The amount of investment these companies are making globally is getting substantial:
Posted by John at 6:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackBy 2006 foreign direct investment (including mergers and acquisitions) from developing economies had reached $174 billion, 14% of the world's total, giving such countries a 13% share (worth $1.6 trillion) of the stock of global FDI. In 1990 emerging economies accounted for just 5% of the flow . . . and 8% of the stock. Their slice of global cross-border M&A has been climbing. It reached 14% in value terms in 2006 . . . That year they spent $123 billion in more than 1,000 cross-border deals.
The World is Mickey's Mouse House
The English language "author" whose works are most frequently translated around the world is Walt Disney Productions. [Source: PPI]
Posted by John at 6:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBackQuote of the Day for Friday, January 11, 2008
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January 10, 2008
"Dust Bowl" Immigration Legislation in Oklahoma
Oklahoma is already feeling the economic effects of immigration-related legislation passed last year, even though some provisions of the law have yet to take effect. USA Today reports:
Posted by John at 10:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack. . . "I've already had customers who came in here and told me they've fired employees because they didn't know if they were here legally," says Tim Wagner, an owner of Cocina De Mino, a Mexican restaurant in Oklahoma City. He predicts industries such as agriculture will face worker shortages.
Widespread reports of vanishing employees and schoolchildren suggest thousands of illegal immigrants have left Oklahoma for neighboring states or their native countries. Cotton gins, hotels and home builders have lost workers. Restaurant and grocery store owners complain of fewer customers.
Some businesses and lawmakers are warning that the economic effects will hit consumers hard. Having a smaller pool of workers for certain jobs will cause delays and create competition among employers, leading them to raise wages and prices, Davis and others say.
Republican state Rep. Shane Jett, who opposed 1804, offers a more dire prediction. Without changes, the law "will be the single most destructive economic disaster since the Dust Bowl," he says. . . .
Quote of the Day for Thursday, January 10, 2008
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January 9, 2008
The "16 Year Itch"
Michael Barone explains, in demographic terms, why voters' emphasis in this presidential election cycle is on "change":
. . . over a period of 16 years, there is enough turnover in the electorate to stimulate an itch that produces a willingness to take a chance on something new.
Over time, the median-age voter in American elections has been about 45 years old. This means that the median-age voter in 1976 was born around 1931--old enough to have experienced post-World War II prosperity and foreign policy success, and then to have been disgusted by Vietnam and Watergate.
The median-age voter in 1992 was born around 1947 (the same year as Dan Quayle and Hillary Clinton, one year after Messrs. Clinton and Bush, one year before Mr. Gore). These voters came of age in the culture wars of the 1960s. They experienced stagflation and gas lines of the 1970s, and the prosperity and foreign policy successes of the 1980s. Mr. Clinton persuaded these voters to take a chance on change by promising not to radically alter policy. They rebuked him when he tried to break that promise, then for 14 years remained closely divided along culture lines as if the '60s never ended.
The median-age voter in 2008 was born around 1963, so he or she missed out on the culture wars of the '60s, and on the economic disasters and foreign policy reverses of the 1970s. These voters have experienced low-inflation economic growth something like 95% of their adult lives--something true of no other generation in history. They are weary of the cultural