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November 30, 2007

Aspirants to Lead The Country Stand Weak Kneed and Trembling

Daniel Weintraub, columnist for Sacramento Bee, perfectly captured my sentiments after watching bits and pieces of the CNN/YouTube Republican presidential debate; thanks to Virginia Postrel for the pointer:

. . . I thought the GOP was supposed to be the "daddy" party -- all strong and manly. But these guys were quaking in their loafers about any number of threats to our safety and livelihoods. From Islamic terrorism to Chinese manufacturers, European farmers, Mexican laborers and even Canadians (yes, Canadians!), the Republicans seem to think the world is about to take us down. Their solutions vary. Some want to curl up in a little American ball to shield ourselves from attack. Others want to "stay on the offense" with the military to keep the bad guys at bay. Nobody really conveyed a sense of confidence in the future, or in the American people's ability to prosper peacefully in a more competitive world.

Of course, the Democrats are not much better. They deny that the Islamists are a threat but see even bigger monsters in the economic closet and are even more eager than the Republicans to protect us from competition and change.

The sad thing is that these candidates must know that a lot of voters share their insecurities, or they wouldn't try so hard to feed them. But doesn't anybody on the campaign trail speak for dynamism, the creative spirit, innovation, and the potential of individuals to do great things? Doesn't anybody running for president think that Americans can compete -- even thrive -- by participating in, not fleeing, a growing global economy? This is the dawn of the Information Age. The world is changing fast. Yet these folks all sound as if they think it's 1955. The Cold War and the Red scare all over again.

I work in what's commonly thought to be the 21st Century equivalent of the buggy whip industry, yet even I have a far cheerier outlook about the future than any of these guys exhibited last night. It was almost as if they were trying to channel Lou Dobbs, or they were hypnotized by that great CNN fearmonger on their way into the studio. . . .

Weintraub's complete comments can be found here. [requires registration]

Posted by John at 7:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Friday, November 30, 2007



Today's quote is from Mark Twain, who was born on this date in 1835: "Twenty years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade wind in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 29, 2007

Dancing Little Emperors

Marketplace examined the rise in childhood obesity in China and the country's effort to curb the problem, which includes dance classes. In the story, James Rice of Tyson Foods, who has worked in China since the 1980s, observed the change in diet over the last two decades:

Twenty years ago, if you went to a Chinese person's home as a guest, the snacks they would have put out on the table to receive a guest, it would have been hot tea, and then seeds, or vegetables, fruit and nuts. And of course those were the only choices in China in those days . . .[Today, you get] Coca-Cola, 7-Up, Pringles potato chips, Frito-Lay snacks, and these sort of processed foods.

You can read the transcript or listen to the audio of the Marketplace story here.

Posted by John at 6:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Let's Put Out the Welcome Mat for Petrodollars

The FT's John Gapper observes that Arab wealth being reinvested in the West is being done rationally, and we should welcome it:

. . . Domestically, it makes sense for the Gulf governments to invest their financial holdings into a variety of assets and to take risk. Many oil-rich states suffer the “resource curse” – the tendency for oil wealth to lead to corruption and lassitude. Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar are trying to escape the curse by diversifying their economies and assets.

They are doing so in a professional manner. As I wrote last week about Dubai, the Gulf states are buying in expertise in the form of expatriate professionals from consulting and financial firms. According to one banker who has worked with the ADIA, it has hired 1,300 professionals from Wall Street and City firms in the past five years. It does not simply take the word of companies and banks that roll up asking for cash.

They are also getting better at navigating the sensitivities raised by Arab governments investing in western companies, after the fiasco of DP World having to shed its management of US ports when it acquired P&O last year. The recent Gulf investments in financial institutions, and in AMD, the US chip company, and Sony of Japan have not raised too many hackles.

There is no reason why they should – quite the opposite, in fact. Funds such as the ADIA have a clear rationale for taking stakes in US companies and are content not to insist on board representation or strategic control. If these investments work, it will help them to broaden their economies and to avoid the social instability common in oil-dependent countries. . . .

Gapper's complete commentary can be found here.

Posted by John at 3:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Thursday, November 29, 2007



Today's quote is from C.S. Lewis, who was born on this date in 1898: "Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 28, 2007

A Petrodollar Investment Tsumani

As long as oil prices remain about $70 a barrel, McKinsey Global Institute calculates, roughly $2 billion of new petrodollars will enter financial markets every day. [Source: Financial Times] Even with oil prices at $50 a barrel, McKinsey projects petrodollar foreign assets will grow to $5.9 trillion by 2012. (You can find the McKinsey study here.)

Consequently, it's hardly going on a a limb to expect more deals like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's $7.5 billion investment in Citicorp and Dubai International Capital's investment in Sony.

Posted by John at 5:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Wednesday, November 28, 2007



Today's quote is from William Blake, who was born on this date in 1757: "He whose face gives no light, shall never become a star."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Indian Investment in the U.S. is Getting Significant

According to India's Economic Times, 34 firms headquartered in India, representing a wide variety of industries, have invested $6 billion in the U.S. this year alone. These firms employ 40,000 people in a wide variety of industries, including hotels,

Tata Group alone has made $2 billion of acquisitions in the U.S., employing 16,000 people, 5000 of which are local. Among the Tata holdings in this country are call centers in Milton, FL and Reno, OH which operate around the clock. Both centers are hiring, by the way.

Posted by John at 4:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Tuesday, November 27, 2007



Today's quote is from Jimi Hendrix, who was born on this date in 1942: "Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 26, 2007

In the Developing World, "Lifestyle Diseases" Dwarf Other Healthcare Problems

A perverse indicator of rising global incomes and declining poverty rates is the rapidly rising incidence of chronic diseases such as heart disease, strokes, and type 2 diabetes. These "lifestyle diseases" now comprise the greatest share--over 60%--of death and disability worldwide. The science journal Nature reports:

. . . Some 80% of chronic-disease deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. They account for 44% of premature deaths worldwide. The number of deaths from these diseases is double the number of deaths that result from a combination of infectious diseases (including HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria), maternal and perinatal conditions, and nutritional deficiencies.

Over the coming decades the burden from CNCDs [chronic non-communicable diseases] is projected to rise particularly fast in the developing world. Without concerted action some 388 million people worldwide will die of one or more CNCDs in the next 10 years. With concerted action, we can avert at least 36 million premature deaths by 2015. Some 17 million of these prevented deaths would be among people under the age of 70 . . .

Posted by John at 6:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The King of Spain Becomes a Ringtone Star

King Juan Carlos's outburst directed at Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez has become a ringtone smash in Spain. Half a million people have downloaded the insult, generating roughly $2 million in revenue to date. [Source: BBC]

Posted by John at 6:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Indian Mass Migration

From the New York Times:

Goldman Sachs, which has published projections about the Indian economy, predicts that 31 villagers will continue to show up in an Indian city every minute over the next 43 years — 700 million people in all.

Posted by John at 3:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Monday, November 26, 2007



Today's quote is from William Cowper, who was born on this date in 1731: "Existence is a strange bargain. Life owes us little; we owe it everything. The only true happiness comes from squandering ourselves for a purpose."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 25, 2007

Even with a Scorecard, It's Hard to Figure Who the Communist Players Really Are

Forty years ago, the Soviet Union and China were at odds over whether their version of communism was the most authentic. Today, communists argue with each other about who's the most "capitalist", and they all seem to be drifting in that general direction. A recent Economist visit with West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee is indicative:

But how on earth does Mr [Buddhadeb] Bhattacharjee reconcile his capitalism-friendly actions with his Marxist colours? He claims to remain a communist to his tobacco-stained finger-tips. Yet he admits that it is getting hard to know what that means. “The world is changing, communists are changing, even in China,” he says. “We are learning from our mistakes.” The comparison with China is obvious. Some Indian commentators have likened Mr Bhattacharjee to China's great moderniser, Deng Xiaoping. He laughs off this suggestion, and notes that communist ideology is practically extinct in China. Yet his own “Marxist principles”, which he says he has discussed at length with Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela, do not sound terribly radical. They are, he says, to “protect the poorest of the poor, protect un-organised workers, protect womenfolk who have no income.”

Posted by John at 8:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

What Victory Looks Like in Recovering Failed States

Victory in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, whenever it comes, will look like what's going on with Macedonia right now, says Thomas P.M. Barnett:

. . . Macedonia, with the help of the U.S. Agency for International Development, made itself the first all-broadband wireless country of its size - or larger - in the world. The name of that USAID program, Macedonia Connects, is wonderfully symbolic of this small country's dogged determination to join the global economy.

So when I first came across those "Invest in Macedonia" ads, I couldn't help but think to myself that this is what victory would look like in places like Iraq and Afghanistan - not our victory but theirs.

The ad, appropriately enough, is one big sales job. Describing itself as the "new business heaven in Europe," the unspoken come-on in the ad seems to be, "if you can't afford Croatia any more, try us instead!"

Most impressively, the ad promises that investors can register their new company in four hours or less. Try matching that in your average developing country, and you'd be lucky to get your papers signed in four months!

As for investor benefit packages, which the ad declares "will be approved within 10 business days," try these on for size: no corporate tax for 10 years; 5 percent individual income tax for five years; free connections to gas, electricity, sewer and water; and concessionary land leases for up to 75 years.

All that for joining a free economic zone (FEZ) with "immediate access to main international airport, railroad and vital road corridors."

As an international businessman who focuses on infrastructure development, let me tell you, that sort of offer gets my attention, along with the fact that the World Bank's "Doing Business 2008" report just named Macedonia the fourth-best reforming economy in the world. China was ninth.

What I like about the ad is how shamelessly Macedonia sells its existing connectivity to attract even more: FEZs, transportation hubs and free trade agreements encompassing 650 million consumers.

Toss in cheap labor and nationwide wi-fi, and you've got yourself a country just itching to be "exploited."

And, yeah, that's what victory looks like for your average failed state: getting yourself off the front page and into the business advertising section. . . .

You can find Barnett's complete commentary here; in it he'll remind you about our not-so-distant past history of conflict with in the region---the Balkan Wars of the 1990s.

Posted by John at 8:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

iPods over I Vote

From the Economist:

A poll of New York University students revealed that 20% would give up their vote in the next election for an iPod and two-thirds would do so for a year's college tuition. Half would renounce their vote permanently for $1m.

Posted by John at 8:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Sunday, November 25, 2007



Today's quote is from Lewis Thomas, who was born on this date in 1913: "The capacity to blunder slightly is the real marvel of DNA. Without this special attribute, we would still be anaerobic bacteria and there would be no music."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 24, 2007

Mexican Workers Most Engaged By Their Jobs

In a Towers Perrin survey of workers around the world, Mexicans come out on top in terms of feeling engaged with their jobs. Over half of Mexican workers surveyed felt "engaged" by their jobs, while just 16% felt either "disenchanted" or "disengaged".

Globally, 21% of workers felt occupationally "engaged", while 38% are "disenchanted" or "disengaged". In the United States, the results were 29% and 28%, respectively. You can read more at IndustryWeek.

Posted by John at 9:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Barbershop Creativity

Richard Florida found out his Toronto hairstylist was formerly a mechical engineer in GM product design, and finds this circumstance a metaphor for an important principle of creativity and economies: creativity is not the province of some elite class:

One of the great fallacies of modern times is the idea that creativity is limited to a small group. Most people, the belief goes, don't want to be creative, couldn't do it if asked and would be uncomfortable in an environment where creativity was expected of them.

This is false. Creativity is a virtually limitless resource that defies social status. I saw this in the 1980s in my studies of high-performance Japanese manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda.

Years ago, Konosuke Matsushita, founder of the great electronics company, laid down the real competitive challenge facing the world. Western factories had started out with better technology, better-trained engineers and managers and more aggressive chief executives. The key to Japan's success, he said, lay in mobilizing the knowledge and intelligence of its factory workers. The rest is history.

Yet our society continues to encourage the creative talents of a privileged minority. We systematically neglect the creative potential of the 60 to 70 per cent of the population that lies outside a narrow view of the creative class. There are fewer and fewer rewarding jobs for people without college degrees. This amounts to a huge inefficiency in our system for harnessing creative energy and turning it into wealth and productivity capacity.

The great challenge of society is to tap the creativity of much larger segments of the work force. It's here that openness, diversity and self-expression play their greatest role. For creativity is the great leveller — it defies gender, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation and outward appearance. We cannot know in advance where the next Steve Jobs, Jimi Hendrix, Jim Balsillie or Leslie Feist will come from. . . .

You can read Florida's complete commentary here; he goes on to note that the ultimate success of cities and countries will be their ability to use all of their creative resources to transform the city or country itself.

Posted by John at 8:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Saturday, November 24, 2007



Today's quote is from William F. Buckley, Jr., who was born on this date in 1925: "Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 23, 2007

As With A Lot of of Things, Technology Races Past Government

Fred Wilson comments on the news that scientists have developed a process to generate patient- and disease-specific stem cells without the use of human eggs or embryos:

. . . once again, technology is the solution to a problem that government can't seem to figure out how to solve. I am not particularly optimistic about our government in this country, or frankly in in our world. Politics is subject to corruption, short term thinking over long term planning, and the will of vocal and powerful minorities over the silent majorities.

But technology on the other hand is solving problems right and left. It's creating problems too (like the stem cell debate). But the great thing about technology is it always tries to solve the problems it creates. And has a track record of doing so.

Next up - our reliance on carbon-based energy and the pollution, climate change, and wealth and power effects it creates.

Posted by John at 12:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

China's IP Piracy Rate Much Less than the United States

Aaron Schwabach of the Thomas Jefferson School of Law asserts in a paper (pdf) that an examination of statistics across countries reveals the U.S. to be a much larger source of intellectual property piracy of movies and music than China. A portion of the abstract follows:

. . . by many measures, China, taken as a whole, is not the leading violator. Some measures show China as the leading violator only because they are aggregates, and do not take into account China's size. When figures are adjusted for population, China's rates of intellectual property violation are lower than those of many other countries, including the United States.

The article first looks at examples of the current round of political and media China-bashing. It then examines figures on international movie piracy provided by the Motion Picture Association (the international counterpart of the Motion Picture Association of America) and compares those figures to the populations of the countries involved. It concludes that the problem of movie piracy is more severe in the U.S. than in China, possibly because of greater broadband access, and more severe still in other countries, including France, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

Schwabach's paper can be read here in full; thanks to the always on the case China Law Blog for the pointer. Here's a particularly pointed excerpt from the paper:

. . . Someone who hijacks airplanes and flies them into buildings full of people is
an enemy. Someone who sells pirated copies of Rush Hour 3 is not. Apparently, though,
political discourse in the U.S. has grown so irrational that concerns about intellectual
property rights, currency exchange rates and leaded paint add up to enmity. And Chinabashing,
like Japan-bashing before it, has become an industry from which people can
make money.

And a pastime for fear mongers trying to win votes, as well.

Posted by John at 10:46 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Friday, November 23, 2007



Today's quote is from Franklin Pierce, who was born on this date in 1804: "Frequently the more trifling the subject, the more animated and protracted the discussion."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 22, 2007

The Pilgrims and the Power of Incentives

Bloomberg's Caroline Baum, quoting from Plymouth Colony leader William Bradford's journal, explains the change in mindset it took for the Pilgrims to survive:

One of the traditions the Pilgrims had brought with them from England was a practice known as "farming in common." Everything they produced was put into a common pool; the harvest was rationed according to need.

They had thought "that the taking away of property, and bringing in community into a common wealth, would make them happy and flourishing," Bradford recounts.

They were wrong. "For this community (so far as it was) was found to breed much confusion and discontent, and retard much imployment that would have been to their benefite and comforte," Bradford writes.

Young, able-bodied men resented working for others without compensation. They thought it an "injuestice" to receive the same allotment of food and clothing as those who didn't pull their weight. What they lacked were appropriate incentives.

After the Pilgrims had endured near-starvation for three winters, Bradford decided to experiment when it came time to plant in the spring of 1623. He set aside a plot of land for each family, that "they should set corne every man for his owne perticuler, and in that regard trust to themselves."

The results were nothing short of miraculous.

Bradford writes: "This had very good success; for it made all hands very industrious, so as much more corne was planted than other waise would have bene by any means the Govr or any other could use, and saved him a great deall of trouble, and gave far better content."

The women now went willingly into the field, carrying their young children on their backs. Those who previously claimed they were too old or ill to work embraced the idea of private property and enjoyed the fruits of their labor, eventually producing enough to trade their excess corn for furs and other desired commodities. . . .

You can find Baum's complete essay here; have a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends! Posted by John at 9:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Thursday, November 22, 2007



Today's quote is from Henri J.M. Nouwen; have a wonderful Thanksgiving: "Gratitude ... goes beyond the "mine" and "thine" and claims the truth that all of life is a pure gift. In the past I always thought of gratitude as a spontaneous response to the awareness of gifts received, but now I realize that gratitude can also be lived as a discipline. The discipline of gratitude is the explicit effort to acknowledge that all I am and have is given to me as a gift of love, a gift to be celebrated with joy. "

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 21, 2007

Beyond the World's Doom and Gloom, Reasons to Be Thankful

While bad news may dominate the headlines, Foreign Policy offers five global trends we should all be thankful for: safer air travel, record low child mortality rates, an overall decline in global violence over the last decade or so, a decline in world poverty, and longer life expectancies. Read the details here.

Posted by John at 8:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Wednesday, November 21, 2007



Today's quote is from Marilyn French, who was born on this date in 1929: "Oh, God, why don't I remember that a little chaos is good for the soul?"

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 20, 2007

Quote of the Day for Tuesday, November 20, 2007



Today's quote is from Alistair Cooke, who was born on this date in 1908: "Curiosity endows the people who have it with a generosity in argument and a serenity in cheerful willingness to let life take the form it will."

Posted by John at 9:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 19, 2007

Seeding Weather Modification in China

China is investing $100 million a year in weather modification research, including cloud seeding to relieve droughts and weather shortages:

When next summer's Olympics roll around, the Beijing Weather Modification Office will be poised to intercept incoming clouds, draining them before they get to the festivities. No fewer than 32,000 people nationwide are employed by the Weather Modification Office -- "some of them farmers, who are paid $100 a month to handle anti-aircraft guns and rocket launchers" loaded with cloud-seeding compounds. Some estimate that up to 50 billion tons of artificial rain will be produced by 2010. . . . [Source: Wired]

According to Wired, the U.S. is apparently spending a pittance on research in weather modification. Given the drought we're experiencing in the Southeast, maybe we can learn something from the Chinese.

Posted by John at 5:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

China's Economy is 40% Smaller--So What?

The Economist's Free Exchange offers an interesting perspective on the news that China's economy is 40% smaller than originally estimated:

. . . this news should not meaningfully change our perception of China's place in the global economy. A 40 percent write-down in the size of the economy sounds massive, but at recent growth rates, it only represents about a five year setback. That's the magic of double-digit annual output growth. If China can maintain anything like its current growth pace, those poverty numbers should look significantly better in no time at all.

Posted by John at 3:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Monday, November 19, 2007



Today's quote is from Dick Cavett, who was born on this date in 1936: "As long as people will accept crap, it will be financially profitable to dispense it."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 18, 2007

Reclaiming a Past Heritage of Technological Innovation in China and India

In the 15th century, both China and India turned away from their history of invention and innovation and began to coast. The Economist examines why:

In his book “The Lever of Riches”, Joel Mokyr settles on a simple explanation for China's technological stagnation: the country's imperial state lost interest. Its purposes were better served by continuity than by progress, and there was no rival source of power and patronage to pick up the threads it dropped. Roddam Narasimha of India's National Institute of Advanced Studies reaches a similar conclusion for India. “Up to the 18th century, the East in general was strong and prosperous, the status quo was comfortable, and there was no great internal pressure to change the global order,” he writes.

That diffidence no longer hampers either state. Both China and India are now restless with technological ambition. China's government does not have the luxury of choosing between progress and stability; it cannot enjoy social peace without economic advance. For the past 30 years it has tried to turn the clock forward. By 2015 its research scientists and engineers may outnumber those of any other country. By 2020 it aims to spend a bigger share of its GDP on research and development (R&D) than the European Union.

India, for its part, surveys the future with uncharacteristic optimism. Its technological confidence has grown immeasurably thanks to the success of its software and IT firms. The heirs to Aryabhata and Brahmagupta, India's digital ambassadors have won acclaim for their mastery of ones as well as zeros. . . .

Posted by John at 12:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The Economic Value of Diversity

Philippe Legrain explains why diversity is not some fuzzy headed feel-good notion, but an important source of economic vitality:

The biggest economic benefit of diversity is that it stimulates new ideas, which are the source of most economic growth, which in turn pays for the good schools, hospitals and other public goods that we value.

The exceptional individuals who come up with brilliant new ideas often are immigrants. Instead of following the conventional wisdom, immigrants tend to have a different point of view and notice new details. As outsiders, they are more determined to succeed. Of Britain’s Nobel-prize winners, 21 arrived in the country as refugees.

Most innovations nowadays come not from individuals, but from groups of talented people sparking off each other – and foreigners with different ideas, perspectives and experiences add something extra to the mix. If there are 10 people sitting around a table trying to come up with a solution to a problem and they all think alike, then they are no better than one. But if they all think differently and bounce new ideas and reactions off one another, they can solve problems better and faster, as a growing volume of research shows. . . .

You can find Legrain's complete essay here.

Posted by John at 10:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Sunday, November 18, 2007



Today's quote is from W.S. Gilbert, who was born on this date in 1836:"Things are seldom what they seem, skim milk masquerades as cream."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 17, 2007

Golden Years for Latin America

The American's Duncan Currie chronicles what has been a remarkable past several years for Latin America:

In many ways, the past half-decade has been a remarkably encouraging period for Latin America, both politically and economically. Most governments have upheld the institutions of democracy and embraced responsible fiscal policies. “Economic management has really never been better,” says Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. “Democratic politics is really very healthy in Latin America. This is a good period for the region.” . . .

“In some ways, Latin America has never had it better,” former Clinton administration official Eric Farnsworth said in a speech last month. “Economic growth across the region is at historic highs, particularly in nations that export natural resources and primary products in agriculture, energy, and mining. Even the so-called populists speak in the language of fiscal restraint, low inflation, and attracting foreign investment,” said Farnsworth, who now serves as vice president of the Council of the Americas. “Democracy across the region requires nurturing but it is largely secure, and human rights have never been more respected.” . . .

Curriie argues that for a Congressional refjection of a free trade pact with Colombia would be a terrifble signal and a colossal blunder. He's right.

Posted by John at 6:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Wherefore Art Thou Internet?

According to a Zogby Poll, 31% of singles believe the internet can serve as a replacement for a significant other. [Hat tip: The American]

Posted by John at 6:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Saturday, November 17, 2007



Today's quote is from Soichiro Honda, who was born on this date in 1907:"If you hire only those people you understand, the company will never get people better than you are. Always remember that you often find outstanding people among those you don't particularly like."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 16, 2007

Smaller and Poorer: Estimate Revisions of China's Economy Coming

Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace predicts that when the World Bank announces PPP data revisions later this year, China's economy will prove to be 40% smaller than originally estimated; the implications of this revision are significant:

. . . This more accurate picture of China clarifies why Beijing concentrates so heavily on domestic priorities such as growth, public investment, pollution control and poverty reduction. The number of people in China living below the World Bank’s dollar-a-day poverty line is 300m – three times larger than currently estimated.

Why such a large revision in the estimates of China’s economic condition? Until recently, China had never participated in the careful price surveys needed to convert accurately its gross domestic product into PPP dollars.

The World Bank’s estimates based on summary data from the late 1980s probably overstated China’s PPP gross domestic product even then. Up to now, the bank has revised its estimate very little. In the meantime, China has repeatedly raised the prices of food, housing, healthcare and a range of other non-traded goods and services. These reforms should have lowered the PPP adjustment, but the bank left it basically unchanged. . . .

For China, the correction needs to be made back to the 1980s and 1990s, when instead of World Bank estimates of roughly 300m people below the dollar-a-day poverty line, the number was more likely more than 500m. China has made enormous strides in lifting its population out of poverty – but the task was perhaps more gargantuan than most people thought and progress has been overstated by bank estimates.

These calculations are not just esoteric academic tweaks. Based on the old estimates, the US Government Accountability Office reported this year that China’s economy in PPP terms would be larger than the US by as early as 2012. Such reports raise alarms in security circles about China’s ability to build a defence establishment to challenge America’s.

Well-informed analysts know that PPP calculations are a poor measure of a country’s potential military base, but with the corrected China PPP statistics, the whole question is moot. China is just not that big now and will not get that big any time soon. . . .

Posted by John at 6:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Quote of the Day for Friday, November 16, 2007



Today's quote is from Elizabeth Drew, who was born on this date in 1935:"The world is not run by thought, nor by imagination, but by opinion."

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 15, 2007

Quote of the Day for Thursday, November 15, 2007



Today's quote is a poem from Marianne Moore, who was born on this date in 1887:
"What is there like fortitude! What sap
went through that little thread
to make the cherry red!"

Posted by John at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 14, 2007

China Giveth, Subprime Taketh Away

Bank of America reported a $3 billion hit due to subprime mortgages, while its paper gain on its 19.9% stake in China Construction Bank is $30 billion.

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Quote of the Day for Wednesday, November 14, 2007



Today's quote is from King Hussein of Jordan, who was born on this date in 1935: "It is my firm belief that I have a link with the past and a responsibility to the future. I cannot give up. I cannot despair. There's a whole future, generations to come. I have to keep trying."

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November 13, 2007

What Hugo Chavez Has in Common With Jesus Christ

A lot, at least according to St. Hugo:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, back in Caracas after a diplomatic spat with the King of Spain, has likened his situation to the persecution of Jesus Christ.

Mr. Chavez, who was told by King Juan Carlos to "shut up" at a summit in Chile, said if he were to keep quiet "the stones of the people of Latin America would cry out", paraphrasing words used by Christ in Jerusalem shortly before his crucifixion.

The Venezuelan information ministry later issued press releases detailing the relevant passages in the Bible to ensure the message was clear. . . .

[Source: Telegraph (UK)]

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Pragmatic Changes in China's Overseas Shopping Trips

The FT's Lex column offers specifics:

. . . In a reversal of the abortive 2005 bid for US oil major Unocal, Chinese buyers are willing to settle for minority stakes. They are also prepared to forgo voting rights, as with the sovereign wealth fund’s 10 per cent stake in Blackstone, the US private equity firm. And, since technical expertise and human capital is part of the attraction, management jobs are seldom on the line.

A more commercial attitude also prevails, although that will not necessarily extend to pricing discipline – or to rival bids from Chinese entities. However, some dud performance has put the focus on price, at least among Chinese bloggers. Blackstone shares are down more than 20 per cent since Beijing’s June investment; Barclays, in which China Development Bank took a stake in July, has fallen 31 per cent, precluding further hasty acquisitions. Subsequent structuring shows lessons have been learnt by, for example, using convertible bonds for protection from price drops. With deep-pocketed Chinese crowding the auction rooms, sellers have less to fear from retreating private equity firms.

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Omens of the Age in China and India

PetroChina becomes the world's first trillion dollar company, and news reports pegged India's Mukesh Ambani as the world's richest man. Not so fast, reported his company, Reliance Industries, Ambani's wealth is only $50 billion, still behind Bill Gates' estimated $63 billion net worth.

Isn't it interesting, and two omens of our times, however, that both benchmarks occur within days of each other?

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Quote of the Day for Tuesday, November 13, 2007



Today's quote is from Robert Louis Stevenson, who was born on this date in 1850: "To know what you prefer instead of humbly saying Amen to what the world tells you you ought to prefer, is to have kept your soul alive."

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November 12, 2007

Think Your Doctor Has to be Local?

Think again; devices like this one will change the geography of doctor and patient:

Using a device that's roughly the size and price of an upscale cell phone, a team of Berkeley Engineering doctoral students hopes to halt the spread of diseases afflicting millions in the developing world.

Dubbed SeroScreen, the handheld instrument will test blood and other bodily fluids for the presence of infection. It will deliver an on-site diagnosis within minutes for influenza, skin infections, mosquito-borne viruses and many other ailments. Because the microdevice is quick, portable and cheap, it could dramatically reduce testing delays and prevent contagious diseases from becoming epidemics in poor and remote regions, the students say. . . .

[Hat tip: Smart Mobs]

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The Deep Roots of Mexican Migration

Álvaro Vargas Llosa visits with the grandson of Emiliano Zapata and sees the deep roots of Mexican migration in a revolution turned corrupt and in the history of a family:

. . . What has been the consequence of a century of collectivization of the land? In the 1990s, when trade policies became more liberal, Mexico's rural population found itself caught up in an extremely inefficient system that was undercapitalized, making it very difficult for Mexican peasants to compete with the outside world. When the government finally allowed the villagers to sell the ejidos, something they had been prevented from doing since 1917, many of them put their land on the market and left for Mexico's cities. When the urban areas did not offer improved conditions, they migrated to the United States. "If my grandfather came back," ponders Emiliano, "he would die of sadness." . . .

Mexico's official history has always maintained that Zapata fought for a socialist revolution. He did not. Zapata was many things -- a womanizer, a drinker, an occasional bandit. Some of his ideas were muddled, but he was no socialist. As the son of small-property owners -- they lived in an adobe house whose ruins I visited in Anenecuilco -- Zapata genuinely wanted his people to own their land. He mistrusted the state: He even refused to sit in the presidential chair when, in 1914, he and Pancho Villa entered Mexico City, seemingly on the verge of total victory in their revolution.

There is an ironic little coda to the story of the grandson, the landless Zapatista: A few years ago, some of his children tried to enter the United States in search of a better future -- a topic Emiliano was reluctant to discuss. . . .

Read the complete commentary here.

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A Time for Diplomatic Niceities, A Time to Tell It Like It Is

Spain's King Juan Carlos, to his credit, knows the difference:

The king of Spain told Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan president, to "shut up" over the weekend in the Chilean capital after Chávez repeatedly called a former Spanish prime minister a "fascist," ending a regional leaders' summit meeting in high tension.

Chávez, who called President George W. Bush the "devil" on the floor of the United Nations last year, provoked the exchange Saturday with harsh words for former Prime Minister José María Aznar, who has in the past criticized Chávez.

Aznar, who was a close ally of Bush as prime minister, "is a fascist," Chávez said in a speech at the Ibero-American summit meeting in Santiago.

"Fascists are not human," Chávez said. "A snake is more human."

Spain's current prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, a Socialist, responded during his own allotted time by urging Chávez to be more diplomatic in his words and respect other leaders.

"Aznar was democratically elected by the Spanish people and was a legitimate representative of the Spanish people," Zapatero said, eliciting applause from the leaders there. "President Hugo Chávez , I think there is an essential principle to dialogue, and that is, to respect and be respected, we should be careful not to fall into insults."

Zapatero also noted the ideological differences he himself had with his conservative predecessor.

Chávez repeatedly tried to interrupt, but his microphone was off. The Spanish king, Juan Carlos I, who was seated next to Zapatero, angrily turned to Chávez and said, "Why don't you shut up?" . . .

[Source: International Herald Tribune]

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Quote of the Day for Monday, November 12, 2007



Today's quote is from Auguste Rodin, who was born on this date in 1840: "I invent nothing, I rediscover."

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