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February 25, 2006

A Legitimate Question Behind the Dubai/U.S. Ports Deal

Dr. John Rutledge, whose blog is a regular reading stop for me, points to where the true focus of questions regarding the Dubai World Ports purchase should rest:

. . . the real story is that Dubai and Singapore, heavily influenced by China, were the only bidders for this company. Congress should be asking why there aren't any American firms bidding for this company. I don't have a problem with calling for more information. Transparency is a good idea. But that’s not what the critics are calling for; they're saying we don't want to sell this to Arabs.

We ought to be focusing on the capital. Five years ago, 46% of the world market cap was in America. Today it's 38%. Why are there no U.S. bidders? It's because we have policies that drive capital offshore. Other countries have policies that attract capital. If we don't change our policies, we'd better get used to foreign investors owning our ports and other things. We need to drive policy, not second guess deals. The results will have terrible consequences for U.S.-Arab relations, obviously. But it’s important to note that since Iraq, stock and land prices in the Persian Gulf have tripled. The increased stability due to the U.S. military presence has effectively increased the duration of land by increasing the length of time investors are going to own it. That money has got to go somewhere and it's getting allocated into the Helmsley building in New York, ports, and other projects. These are big investors now. If you drive them away, you're going to drive the dollar down and the stock market down with it. We live by the golden rule – whoever has the gold gets to rule. We need to focus on keeping and attracting capital into the U.S.

Part of the reason behind the U.S. decline in share of world market cap is the significant performance of emerging markets, and not just in the Middle East. Their stock markets are performing well, in part, because of continued moves to more market-driven economies.

The United States cannot take its benign environment for capital for granted. We must focus on treating capital well. If we do, we will not only attract it from foreign investors but continue to build it within our own borders.

Posted by John on February 25, 2006 10:28 AM

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