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September 27, 2005
U.S. Immigration Ebbs and Flows with the National Economy
The Pew Hispanic Center has just released a study (pdf) of recent immigration patterns, "Rise, Peak, and Decline: Trends in U.S. Immigration, 1992-2004." This report measured both legal and illegal immigration.
Contrary to popular perception of steadily rising immigration patterns, particularly from Mexico, in-flow into the U.S. has varied significantly over the past dozen years. U.S. immigration rose in the 1990s, jumped substantially in 1999 and 2000, and fell dramatically after 2001. Even with a rise in 2004 over 2003, the annual in-flow of foreign nationals was down 24% in 2004 from the peak in 2000.
"This basic pattern of increase, peak and decline," reports authors Jeffrey S. Passel and Roberto Suro, "is evident for the foreign-born from every region of the world and for both legal and unauthorized migrants."
Not surprisingly for anyone with a basic understanding of economics, these patterns of immigration follow the health of the national economy:
Both the run-up to the peak and the drop-off in immigration coincide with a variety of conditions known to influence such flows, most notably the performance of the U.S. economy. Immigration grew sharply during the rapid economic and job expansion of the 1990s and then declined as the economy went into a downturn after 2001. Measures of the change in the Mexican labor force—the largest single source of U.S. immigrants by far—follow trends closely related to the pattern of changes in U.S. immigration. . .
Quite plainly, an increasing supply of jobs at attractive wages attracts immigrants. When that supply diminishes, so does in-flow of foreign nationals.
It’s the law of supply and demand, pure and simple.
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