. . . Unless investigations of the Mississippi River south of New Orleans show that the course of the river has changed in some fundamental and non-navigable way, the nightmare geopolitical scenario appears to have been avoided.

We still do not know how much damage was done to the region's oil industry, or how long it will take to repair. The oil off-loading facility known as the LOOP may have been damaged, and it is possible that some of the off-shore drilling platforms were damaged as well. That will certainly have a critical effect. But our best guess is that the Mississippi remains navigable or will be after some dredging.

The bottom line is this. New Orleans has survived as a city, which means that the workers in the port and the refineries will be able to return to their jobs. The grain storage and port facilities do not appear to have been swept away. Damage to the oil refineries and other facilities does not appear to be critical. These are early estimates, and tomorrow may bring new surprises, but at the moment, the foundation of the American transportation system--the Mississippi River complex--appears to have survived.

However, as I heard one commentator on National Public Radio observe this morning, last year it took about six to eight months for areas affected by Hurricane Ivan to return to normal.

Ivan, however, "only" caused about $13 billion in damages, a figure Katrina appears likely to exceed, maybe by a significant amount. Reinsurer Munich Re already estimates that insured damage from Katrina could reach $20 billion.