. . . Univision continues to crush would-be rivals like GE's Telemundo network. Furthermore, management no longer considers other Spanish-language networks to be the network's prime competitors. Rather, Univision is now competing with the likes of Disney's ABC, GE's NBC, Viacom's CBS, and News Corp's Fox network.

To some extent, this viewpoint is valid. Other dedicated Spanish-language broadcasters like Telemundo and the emerging Azteca America (owned by Mexico's TV Azteca aren't major threats today.

What could be a major threat, though, is the expansion of existing major networks into Hispanic programming -- ventures like ESPN Deportes, MTV Latino, and a host of low-priced Spanish-language tiers offered by cable companies like Comcast. . . .

Simpson touches on a very important point. Mainstream networks such as ABC, NBC, and CBS have had their share voraciously nibbled away at the margin by caterpillars like ESPN, the Discovery Channel, A&E, Court TV, Animal Planet, HGTV, and the 200 or so other networks which are carried on various cable and satellite systems.

If Univision views its prime competition as the mainstream networks, then by extension, it is vulnerable to the same segmentation. The U.S. Hispanic population is now almost 40 million, roughly the size of the country of Spain. Media markets of this size draw media segmentation, by definition.

Another way to look at it is this: how many media companies have maintained an 80% market share indefinitely over a long period of time?

With the mainstream networks, the results of the "caterpillars' appetites" showed little by little over a period of years, but it was inexorable. The same is likely to be true for Univision, in our view.