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March 23, 2005
Comparing the Value of a Hog and a Dog
The Financial Times observes ($) that Harley-Davidson’s market value, about $17.7 billion, now exceeds that of General Motors’ roughly $16.2 billion.
Based on 2004 numbers, Harley-Davidson’s market value is over $55,700 per bike shipped, in spite of the fact that net income per bike is only about $2,800. Wall Street investors, by implication, seem happy to accept a 5% return on each Hog sold. (I’ve just come at earnings yield, or as Warren Buffett calls it, “owner earnings,” in a little different way to make a point.)
GM receives much less respect on Wall Street, of course. The struggling auto make sells at only about $1,800 per vehicle shipped in 2004. GM’s net income per vehicle was much less than HD’s in 2004, only $768. The earnings yield for GM, based on 2004 results, is a whopping 43%.
In fairness, GM will lose a tremendous amount of money in the first quarter. While the company puts a brave face on the rest of the year, a loss for all of 2005 could be in the offing. The earnings yield, in other words, has disappeared under the weight of health care costs and other burdens.
With all that said, is GM so reviled among consumers that its value should be less than $1,800 per vehicle? Are Harley-Davidson’s future prospects so compelling that a valuation of $55,700 per Hog is a bargain?
The disparity is compellingly striking.
(We have no position in either stock.)
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